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IOWA: POLLS [David Hogberg 10/20 05:35 PM]

I have to wonder if most of the opinion polls are wrong, and this race really isn’t all that close. I have some recent posts on my website regarding “omens” that don’t portend well for Kerry. Admittedly, though, it is anecdotal evidence.

More such evidence today from Southeast Iowa, a region with heavy Democratic voter registration. Last night I interviewed a friend of mine who is a Bush volunteer, and it is fair to say that she was overflowing with enthusiasm. (She has asked to remain anonymous). “The base is fired up!” she gushed. “The grassroots enthusiasm for Bush is tremendous.”

She happily complained to feeling overwhelmed. “I’m in charge of distributing signs, and I can’t keep up with the demand. I have more people than I know coming up and asking me, ‘Where is my Bush sign?’”

She also noted that she is meeting a lot of social conservatives that she never knew existed. “They’re coming up to me at GOP headquarters and asking ‘what work can I do, how can I help?’” She wasn’t sure what was motivating them to get involved now. “We don’t really talk about it much. From what I can tell, it’s a combination of things like gay marriage, abortion, Bush’s belief in God and what they see as Bush’s genuineness.”

She was involved in the 2000 campaign, and the traffic coming through GOP headquarters then wasn’t anything like it is now. Some of her friends who were also involved in the 1996 campaign also say they have never seen anything like this.

Finally she stated “we are getting Democrats coming to headquarters and booths at the Fair, asking for [Bush] signs and bumper stickers.” When I inquired if these might be Democrats that are trying to steal Bush paraphernalia, she didn’t think so. “They seem genuinely supportive of Bush. Plus, there are a lot of them,” suggesting that it would have to be a pretty big plot by the Democrats.

So, are the polls wrong? Well, I’m not quite a person who lives and dies by polls, but I’m pretty close. Thus, I’m not willing to say that it isn’t very close. (Strategically, it makes sense to assume that it is close, as it will inspire Bush supporters to get out the vote for Bush.) Yet, I have to wonder.

On an unrelated matter, while we are speculating about the electoral impact of a BoSox win tonight (I never thought I’d be rooting for the Yankees!) on WMAL this morning Michael Graham noted the importance of a home win for the Washington Redskins. Apparently since 1936 whenever the Redskins won their last home game before the election, the incumbent retained the White House. The next Redskins home game? October 31, against the Packers. May Brett Favre have a bad cold