Pottsville, PA (4:30 PM) — A fierce war is being fought in our bellwether county, which has gone with the nation's choice for president all but twice since 1960. Liberal activists from MoveOn.org and ACT have been shipped here from across the country to register voters and promote John Kerry.
The county has a significant Catholic population, which is divided among pro-lifers/pro-convention marriage types supporting Bush, and anti-war folks supporting Kerry. My wife and I and a handful of volunteers spend our weekends passing out pro-life literature at Catholic churches and evangelical Protestant churches. The county is home to an inordinate number of sportsmen and people licensed to carry concealed weapons, which is certainly in Bush's favor. But the county also bears the economic scarring of having union workers in the coal industry displaced. Republicans outnumber Democrats 46,000 to 35,000, yet Bush beat Gore by only 3,000 votes in 2000, and liberal Democrat Ed Rendell carried the county over conservative Mike Fisher in the 2002 governor's race. Bush will carry the county, but we are worried about the margin of victory.
Going door-to-door, my wife and I have both had doors slammed in our faces by socially conservative Catholics angry about the war. A barracks of troops in our county was recently called up, and people are upset. The race here will definitely turn on the war. Complicating matters is a heated Congressional race, pitting longtime, beloved blue-dog Democrat Tim Holden, the incumbent, against the son of legendary Penn State football coach Joe Paterno. Democrat Holden will crush Paterno in our county, which may help Kerry. My prediction in the county: Bush 52 percent, Kerry 48 percent.
