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FLORIDA: SUNSHINE-STATE POLLS [Cris Rapp 10/21 10:50 AM]

According to a new Quinnipiac poll of likely Florida voters released today, Bush leads Kerry by a slim 48–47 margin, down from a lead of 51–44 in a poll earlier this month. Ralph Nader gets 1 percent of the vote in this latest poll; curiously, when Nader is removed from the list of choices, Bush’s lead increases, to 49–47.

Bush has the strongest support in the northern part of the state, a region that stretches from Jacksonville through the Panhandle, where he leads 55–35. Kerry leads by a similar amount in the densely populated southeastern region, including Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties, 52–34.

Bush’s favorability/unfavorability ratings are at 43–36, about what they have been for the last two months, but a marked improvement from the 38–43 mark he received in Quinnipac’s mid-August poll. Kerry’s ratings are at 36–35, up from a mid-September low of 34–41.

The poll lends some credence to the idea that many Kerry voters are supporting Kerry more out of displeasure with Bush than enthusiasm for the Senator. 56% of Kerry supporters say they will vote for Kerry mainly because they like him; 39% say they are mainly voting against Bush. Among Bush supporters, 80% say their vote is mainly “for” the President.

The Quinnipac poll numbers are in line with other polls of Florida likely voters released in the last week.

Quinnipac: Bush 48, Kerry 47, Nader 1
Mason-Dixon: Bush 48, Kerry 45
U. of North Florida: Bush 44, Kerry 45, Nader 2

It’s going to be a nail-biter, folks.