Battlegrounders
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MICHIGAN: LAND OF DUBYA OPPORTUNITY? [Henry Payne 10/21 06:56 PM]

The surprise Detroit News/Mitchell Research poll giving President Bush a four-point lead over John Kerry in Michigan has reawakened interest in a battleground state that opinion-makers here had already chalked up in Kerry's win column.

For evidence of just how much the poll flies in the face of conventional wisdom, read today's R. W. Apple - bylined story (written before The News' poll results were published) in the New York Times headlined: "Kerry in the lead, but almost by default."

So confident is Kerry of victory here that he has not visited the state since September 15 - and he not expected to return before Election Day.

Meanwhile, the Bush campaign has poured money into western Michigan - a sign of weakness, experts say, because he has not yet shored up his conservative base there. Why? Because western Michigan has been hammered by job losses at companies like Whirlpool, Electrolux, and Johnson Controls - losses more often associated with auto factory closings in Southeast Michigan. Apple cites even Republican sources as worrying that "the president is doing less well than expected in that conservative stronghold."

Or do the Bushies see an opportunity? Why, after all, would the campaign buy so much media in a state that experts have written off for Kerry? And why have Dick Cheney and Laura Bush made Michigan their second home in recent weeks? The News' tracking poll surveyed 400 voters. It's next poll - covering 600 likely voters - will be eagerly watched when it comes out this weekend.