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IOWA: SOME GOOD NEWS FOR W. [David Hogberg 10/22 12:09 PM]

Bush may be surging. Two recent polls, Survey USA and Mason-Dixon, both have him up by six points.

More news from Tusk and Talon. Jeff notes the attendance differences in Bush and Kerry rallies in the Hawkeye state. Looks like Bush has a big advantage on that aspect. Displaying the bipolar nature of Tusk and Talon, Chad Nicholl has a bummer of a post complaining about potential voter lawsuits in Iowa. It’s “not all fuzzy kittens and rainbows for GWB in Iowa,” Chad moans.

One note about the recent poll showing Bush four points ahead in Michigan. With all due respect to Michigan Republicans, who surely deserve a visit by the president, a campaign stop there at this late stage would be a waste. With almost every other poll showing Kerry up in Michigan, making an effort on Michigan based on what is likely an outlier is a bad idea. It’s an especially bad idea when Bush appears to be surging in three other states he didn’t win in 2000, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Combine Iowa with either of those other two, and you get 17 electoral votes, the same number as Michigan. Finally, it is still nip-and-tuck in Ohio and Florida (Bush needs a win in one, and probably both, of those) and he’s still got a decent chance in Pennsylvania — all of which have more electoral votes than the Motor State. Any hypothetical visit to Michigan should go to those states instead.

If Bush is going to “waste” a visit, he should go someplace where a Republican is locked in a close Senate race, and there is no shortage of those: Alaska, Colorado, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and South Dakota.

Sorry Michigan, but sending Bush there now won’t help him win.