Battlegrounders
[ home | archives | email ]

VARIOUS: HAWAII, ARKANSAS, MICHIGAN, AND THAT KERRY STORY [David Hogberg 10/24 04:36 PM]

Holy Margins of Error, Batman! Another Hawaii poll, this one showing Bush leading Kerry, 46-45%!

That combined with the new Arkansas poll showing a dead heat, and I have no idea what is going on in this election. Right now, I’m dismissing the Arkansas News poll as a fluke since it represents a 9-point swing in only two weeks, two weeks when nothing out of the ordinary happened in the campaign. Yes, Zogby also showed a close race here, but he has a terrible record at the state level. Nevertheless, if I’m Karl Rove I’m telling my pollster to do an overnighter in the Razorback State to see if Bush volunteers and a Bush visit are necessary.

Okay, I am now open to the possibility that it might be a good idea for Bush to go to Michigan (not like my opinion matters, as he is clearly going anyway.) I base this on: (1) Kerry is worried enough that he is making a visit here; (2) That Detroit News tracking poll now shows Bush with a 5-point lead; and (3) This insightful piece by Zev Chafets. If anyone cares to email me a dpokerhog@cox.net and make a further case please do so. Who knows, by tomorrow morning I might be converted.

Last, at my blog Hog Haven, I have a slight warning for conservatives about the looming Kerry story.