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PENNSYLVANIA: NEW KEYSTONE NUMBERS [Chris Lilik 10/27 10:31 AM]

Two new polls are out this morning, both showing Kerry up in Pa. The big question is by how much?

The new Survey USA has Kerry up by a whopping 8 points, (53%-45%) and Specter leading Hoeffel and Clymer 51%-38%-6%.

Yet another Zogby poll was also released , this one done in conjunction with Reuters. Like the previous Zogby, Kerry leads by 3, this time 49%-46%.

While Survey USA polls are often criticized by pollsters and pundits as being untrustworthy, they were pretty darn accurate during the Toomey campaign. For example, a Survey USA done right before the Toomey/Specter primary showed the race tied 48%-48%, projecting what turned out to be a photo-finish. But then again, just days ago three polls showed Pa. to be a 2% race.

"Forget all these polls. This county has gone poll crazy. My advice is to take them all, average them, and the answer has a fifty-fifty chance of being right or wrong. There is no fail-safe way to poll an expanding electorate where the intensity of interest shifts day to day," said KDKA-TV Politics Editor Jon Delano. "Polls are snapshots of days gone by, not predictors of what's going to happen on Election Day."

While Delano's gut on Pennsylvania is that Kerry is in the lead, he also notes it is likely to rain next Tuesday, which some might say is good news for Republicans. Delano stresses turnout is what will decide Pennsylvania, not poll numbers.