Battlegrounders
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VARIOUS: WHAT ABOUT ALL THOSE NEW DEM VOTERS? [David Hogberg 10/27 04:54 PM]

Reading about all the new voters that the Democrats claim that will turn out for them, I recalled an article I wrote for NRO just after Dean lost in Iowa. Interestingly, Dean also heavily touted the “new voter” strategy: "Dean claims that the campaign is already attracting these new people in droves: 'A quarter of all the people who donate money to our campaign are under 30 years old.'

"Yet some of the evidence behind this claim is shaky. After the discovery two weeks ago of Dean's four-year-old comments criticizing the Iowa caucuses, he released a damage-control statement. Dean explained, 'Just the other day, I was in Muscatine where nearly 50 percent of those gathered either had never been to a caucus before or were not even registered to vote; but they were there because they believed we can change things,' referring to a January 7 pancake breakfast at an American Legion post in eastern Iowa. While there were a few people under 30 in attendance, the room was dominated with folks over age 50 ? i.e., those from the age demographic with the highest rates of voter participation, not to mention high rates of Iowa-caucus participation. Union members, the bulk of Democratic-caucus participants, were also well represented, including members of the UAW, American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, and the Plumbers and Pipefitters.

"Even if nearly 50 percent of those in attendance had never voted in nor attended a caucus, it's not clear how Dean would know that. He didn't spend much time talking to people one-on-one. Nor did I see his campaign staff taking a survey of the crowd to determine their recent voting habits. A call to Dean's Iowa press office yielded no answer; a spokeswoman did not know how the Dean campaign arrived at the 50-percent figure. I asked her to call me back with an answer, but she never did. I followed up with two phone messages, which were also not returned. Perhaps it all depends on what the definition of 'nearly 50 percent' is."

That strategy didn’t work for Dean, and his personality probably had a better chance of exciting so-called “new voters” than Kerry does.

The “new voters” amounted to little more than hype in January. Wonder if it will amount to much more than that on Tuesday.