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MICHIGAN: KERRY MOVES AHEAD [Henry Payne 10/29 12:36 PM]

Powered by his Monday Michigan rally and The New York Times/CBS "October Surprise" lost weapons ambush, John Kerry consolidated his lead in The Detroit News poll published this morning.

The poll of 600 likely voters taken Monday-Wednesday put Kerry ahead 46-40 percent, after a smaller, 400-voter sample published Thursday had Kerry up five. News pollster Steve Mitchell tempered the Kerry gains by noting that "Bush may see an increase in his numbers following two days of campaigning in Michigan." Bush drew crowds of 30,000 in Pontiac Wednesday and 8,500 in Saginaw Thursday and will return Saturday to Grand Rapids for another rally.

Secretary of State Terry Lynn Land also predicted heavy voter turnout Thursday as 300,000 new voters have registered since the 2000 election. Land estimated turnout in the 60 percent range as compared to 57 percent in 2000, and 54 percent in 1996.

Both parties see an advantage in a large turnout. Republicans say Proposal 2 - a ballot initiative banning gay marriage which is running ahead 3-1 in polls - will motivate Bush's base. Democrats, on the other hand, point to Proposal E in Detroit - which would return the power to elect the city's school superintendent to Detroit's school board from the state - as a minority voter spur. Seen as a black empowerment issue, Proposal E may stimulate heavy black turnout in Detroit, a key factor in electing Al Gore here four years ago.

A final Michigan wild card is Tuesday's union holiday. Negotiated by the UAW in labor agreements with the Big Three auto cos. before the 2000 election, union members are given Election Day off from work - a huge advantage to Democratic organizers seeking to get their base to the polls.