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OHIO: BUSH AHEAD [Peter W. Schramm 10/30 11:47 AM]

Or, race tightens, as the Cleveland Plain Dealer, puts it. Bush is ahead in Ohio, 48-45%, according to the Plain Dealer Poll (conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling), with 5% undecided, and 2% to "another" candidate. The margin of error is 2.6%. They say "race tightens" because in September Bush was ahead 50-42% in the same poll. No matter how you spin it, Bush is ahead. A couple of details worth noting: Kerry take the female by only 4% (48-44%), which is not enough for him to win. Bush takes the male vote by 10% (52%-42%); and the poll found that Kerry has expanded his lead in Northeast Ohio, and gained ground in central Ohio and dramatically narrowed Bush's lead in the socially conservative Southeast Ohio; and Bush has improved his lead in Northwest Ohio. Also note this article in The Plain Dealer on the "frenetic" nature of the campaign in Ohio.

Governor Arnold was here yesterday, Bruce Springsteen, Jon Bon Jovi, and
others. Cheney, Kerry, and Edwards all make appearances in Ohio today.
Bush is in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Florida.