Battlegrounders
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IOWA: ODDS [David Hogberg 11/01 11:38 AM]

I had a conversation with my former boss in Iowa the other day, Don Racheter, a professor of political science at Central College. A big Bush supporter, he seemed quite upbeat. He jokingly told me that he had to tell his son—who is sometimes a bit remiss—“Put you absentee ballot in your hand right now, before you leave!”

A veteran of many campaigns, he has never seen this type of Republican activity. “There are a lot more bodies on the ground,” he said, “a lot more effort.” He was particularly impressed by the amount of paid staff the GOP has in Iowa this time around. “They’ve hired a lot of young people to do phone-bank drives and such. These are the kids who are willing to work 16-hour days. And since they are paid, they are much more reliable than volunteers.”

Last Monday he volunteered to make phone calls for the Bush Campaign. Of the Republicans he called, he estimated that 25% had already voted for Bush via absentee ballots. Something else that is unprecedented.

He also reminded me that there may be an inherent bias in all polls that favors the Democrats. “The Democrats often register a lot of new people who then do not show up to vote. The GOP turnout is generally a lot steadier.” The problem is that people who are newly registered may not tell the truth to the pollster. “They don’t want to look bad to the pollster, so they tell pollsters that they have voted in previous elections and that they will vote in this one.”

The last bit of good news he conveyed was how the students at Central College voted in the mock election. It wasn’t even close: Bush 60%, Kerry 40%.

In summary, he thinks Bush will carry Iowa, but is a bit worried about lawsuits. Other than that, one of the most positive conversations I’ve had this election season.