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MICHIGAN: INTERVIEW WITH BILL BALLENGER [Henry Payne 11/02 06:56 PM]

The last in a series of excerpts from an interview with Bill Ballenger, editor of "Inside Michigan Politics." Crowned by The Detroit News as "Michigan's undisputed Crown Prince of Punditry," the colorful Ballenger holds a masters from Harvard's Kennedy School, served in the Ford administration, and was a Republican state senator and rep before making a career as Michigan's top political analyst.

In the 1980's, Michigan's Macomb County was political reporters' favorite national bellwether. The home of the so-called Reagan Democrats, these middle-class blue collars identified with Reagan's cultural conservatism and strong national security message. But this election, we haven't heard much of Macomb. Is it still THE Michigan story?

Ballenger says reporters have naturally tired of the Macomb angle in the search for something fresh. But it's also because neighboring Oakland Co. has become more compelling. Governed locally by Republicans, the richest county in Michigan has suddenly gone Democrat in recent presidential elections, including giving Gore a comfortable margin in 2000.

Says Ballenger: "The news this election is that Democratic Macomb may actually vote for Bush in higher numbers than Republican Oakland."

Why? "Because the national GOP has moved to the right of the moderate, Republican elites that populate Oakland: executives, Jews, etc. They tend to be pro-choice on abortion and pro-gay unions, for example. The GOP's more populist, culturally-conservative message of the last 20 years appeals more to conservative Democrats in Macomb."

Other experts cite the influx of Democrat-leaning singles and middle-class blacks fleeing Detroit blight into southern Oakland. Ballenger acknowledges that demographic factor, but says it's a minor player.

"The point is, Oakland Republicans haven't changed," he says. "The party has. The GOP increasingly has to nominate a pro-life person because of the party grassroots. And that makes Oakland's elites nervous."