President Bush won Ohio by more than 134,000 votes. The Secretary of State's office said this margin is statistically insurmountable even after the 135,149 provisional ballots are considered. For Kerry to win Ohio, every provisional ballot cast would have to be counted and 93 percent of them would have to be votes for Senator Kerry. It is statistically impossible for this to happen, and we are certain President Bush has won Ohio.
Provisional ballots are cast when a person's name is not on the list of eligible voters at a polling place or because a person did not provide identification as required by the Helping America Vote Act (HAVA). The purpose of provisional balloting is to protect properly registered voters whose names are not on the rolls due to a processing error or administrative mistake.
According to Federal law and Ohio law, provisional ballots are eligible to be counted only if the voter is registered and cast their provisional ballot in the proper precinct. Election officials must determine that the voter:
* Registered to vote
* Voted in the proper precinct
* Did not cast another ballot in the election
* Completed and signed all required affirmation statements
* Provided acceptable proof of identity by the close of polls on Election Day if required by HAVA.
It is unlikely all the provisional ballots cast in Ohio are eligible to be counted. During the 2004 Illinois primary, only 17 percent of provisional ballots were eligible to be counted. In Chicago, only seven percent of provisional ballots were determined to be cast by an eligible voter. There are not enough provisional ballots to give Kerry the margin he needs to win Ohio. Even if all the provisional ballots cast in Ohio are counted, virtually all of them would have to contain votes for Kerry for him to win the state. This is statistically impossible.
Under Ohio law, the board of elections shall begin verifying the provisional ballots immediately following the election and shall complete by the conclusion of the official canvass (November 13).
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