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Battlegrounders
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PA.: WHY BUSH LOST A CLOSER-THAN-2000 PA, AND SANTORUM WARNING [Chris Lilik 11/03 12:23 PM]
K-Lo was right about PA being closer than everyone thinks.
In 2000 Gore won by a greater margin in PA:
47% Bush: 2,264,309
51% Gore: 2,465,412
In 2004, with 99% of all precincts reporting, things were closer:
49% Bush 2,746,856
51% Kerry 2,868,674
As predicted, the Achilles heal for Republicans like Bush in PA was the Democrat juggernaut called Philadelphia county.
The vote totals in Philadelphia County were just too much for W, who lost that county: 517,054 (80%)-124,710 (20%). That's a loss of a little less than 400,000 in ONE COUNTY, and a bigger Democrat candidate vote total than when Gore beat Bush in Philly by nearly 350,000! In 2000 Bush lost that county 99,234 (18%) to 441,834 (80%).
While one can argue that Bush could have done better in other counties, (he lost 3 of the 4 big Philly suburb Republican-registration-Democrat-voting counties, lost Allegheny County and Lackawanna by a little more than he probably hoped, etc) 400,000 votes is a heck of a lot to make up, especially when Bush only
lost the state by 119,818.
The lesson to be learned from this election is that Senator Rick Santorum is going to be in an extremely tough 2006 race if he faces a Philadelphia area Joe Hoeffel or Allyson Schwartz. Former Philly Mayor and PA Governor Ed Rendell will be up for reelection, meaning the Democrat Philly base will already be energized. (Rendell is also very popular with SEPA's staple liberal Republicans.)
This will not be another quiet Klink/Santorum contest. Santorum's recent party-before-principle behavior in the Toomey/Specter primary has alienated some of his conservative base, while his recent controversial remarks have alienated others and fired up the anti-Santorum Democrat left. With gigantic Philly turnout figures in 2000, 2002, and 2004 and Rendell on the ticket, a Philly area candidate could potentially wreck Santorum and send a hardcore leftist
into the Senate.
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