10/16/00 10:20 a.m.
The GOP's Thematic Surge
Bush has Republican office-seekers staying on theme.

By Richard Nadler, editor of K.C. Jones, a Midwestern political monthly

uring the halcyon days of early summer, George W. Bush soared in the polls. On August 7, 2000, a Rasmussen survey of Missouri likely voters showed the governor leading Al Gore by a commanding 48%-32%. The GOP faithful in Missouri looked forward to capturing the governorship and an extra congressional seat, while preserving John Ashcroft's hotly contested Senate post.

But in a state Bill Clinton carried twice, and whose legislature Democrats have dominated for decades, this advantage proved illusory. Gore consolidated his party at the Democratic convention, and by Labor Day the presidential candidates ran neck-and-neck in Missouri. Indeed, a Kansas City Starpoll showed Gore well ahead at the time.

Down ticket, the races tightened as well. In the course of August, Ashcroft saw a 6-point lead decrease to a statistical dead heat, while Jim Talent slipped to underdog status.

Congressional prospects seemed also to unravel. The 2nd District, solidly Republican, saw an intense primary contest to replace Jim Talent, now running for governor. State Representative Todd Akin, a full-spectrum conservative, defeated several better-known Republicans with a spirited grass roots effort. But the Democrats of the 2nd District nominated their strongest possible candidate — Ted House, who is a moderate, pro-life state senator. Akin faced the daunting double task of reuniting his party and raising a congressional campaign chest. The 2nd District came suddenly, and unexpectedly, into play.

Yet, as their poll numbers slid, the major GOP candidates behaved like front runners. The Ashcroft campaign ran on law and order. The Talent campaign emphasized road building and funding increases for public schools.

And they ran late.

Generally, Democrats hit the airwaves first. For two weeks after their convention, Democrats savaged Bush's Texas record unanswered. State Treasurer Bob Holden, the Democrat gubernatorial candidate, responded to Talent's first generation of ads before they even hit the air. By the time the congressman's "good government" message was screened, voters had heard that he would defund public schools with vouchers, and favor the rich with tax cuts.

The exception was Ashcroft. The senator's low-road campaign virtually duplicated that of his Democratic opponent, Missouri Governor Mel Carnahan. But Ashcroft, a seasoned warrior, got there first, accusing Carnahan of raiding Social Security, and of promoting crime through laxity. Even at the low-ebb of Republican fortunes in Missouri — mid-September — Ashcroft preserved a slender lead. He seemed almost to dare Carnahan to venture into issues. In a campaign of cacophony, he would not be outshouted.

But gradually Republicans reasserted conservative themes — thanks in good part to George W. Bush. Doggedly, the Texas governor continued his center-right campaign of tax cuts, education reform, and Social Security privatization. As he regained traction in the polls, the conservatives running to his left began to reprise their old tunes.

In the 6th District, which contains rural northwest Missouri and suburban north Kansas City, Republicans nominated a young farmer, state Senator Sam Graves, to challenge for the seat vacated by conservative Democrat Patricia Danner. Steve Danner, Pat's son and would-be successor, was himself a state senator in the early 1990s. Graves promptly launched a slashing attack on his liberal record (his low-tax, pro-trade views contrast sharply with those of his opponent).

A new series of Talent-for-Governor ads embraced the charter school movement as part of a rigorous reform package patterned after Bush's. And in the 2nd District, Akin, aided by his former opponent Gene McNary, assembled the machinery of a competitive conservative campaign.

John Ashcroft remained averse to articulating conservative themes — you know, the ones his presidential bid were based on — but his followers were less restrained. Governor Mel Carnahan had blocked state laws to ban partial-birth abortion, and to permit concealed-carry of firearms. Pro-lifers and Second Amendment clubs provided Ashcroft's ground troops.

By mid-October, the GOP's most contested campaigns were thematically recognizable to the party faithful — and the candidates were doing much better.

An October 13th Rasmussen survey found Bush leading Gore 47%-40%, Talent overtaking Holden 47%-39%, and Ashcroft thumping Carnahan 50%-40%. In addition, Republican congressional candidates were poised to hold the 2nd, and to win the 6th.