10/06/00 10:50 a.m.
Ground Zero for Bush and Gore
How it looks in the Buckeye State.

By Kevin Holtsberry, freelance writer based in Ohio

fter a short debate hiatus, Ohio is once again ground zero in the intensifying presidential campaign. With the national polls showing the race agonizingly close, both Gov. Bush and Vice President Gore rushed back to the Buckeye State after their national TV clash Tuesday night. Both visited friendly territory. Gore, continuing to hammer his populist "the people vs. the powerful" message, visited blue-collar Warren for a rally at the Courthouse Square. Bush, continuing his focus on education, held another rally at a suburban high school, this time Reynoldsburg High School outside Columbus. Each is searching furtively for that elusive undecided voter and looking to swing the momentum their way.

So, how did the debate play out here in the heartland?

Going into the debate Bush held a five-point lead (Columbus Dispatch poll released 10/1, 48-43 +/- 2) and was looking to reassure his base and swing some undecideds his way. Gore needed to change some minds, convince them to like and trust him. It is often difficult to gauge a debates' impact, but it might be helpful to look at how the candidates connected on issues important to Ohioans.

Taxes: Gore's relentless attacks on Bush's tax proposal are a mixed bag. Gore reassures his base with this tactic but risks alienating some voters. Many voters are distrustful of tax cuts for the "rich," but are also often turned off by statistics and distrust politician's claims. Bush's riffs on fairness and equity, if used effectively, can be a strong rebuttal. Voters may not benefit from a particular policy but they believe that the rules should be fair for everyone. Issues like the estate tax, the marriage penalty, and tax-code simplification bears this out. Bush's emphasis on giving everyone a tax cut; reducing marginal tax rates, and simplifying the tax code play very well in Ohio. If he could learn to incorporate growth themes outlined by NRO's Larry Kudlow it would be even better.

Prescription drugs: Bush can't beat Gore on this issue. The best he can do is fight to a draw. Gore is better with factoids, can throw around more money; and is willing to say anything to convince voters. Bush should instead stand on his broad themes by emphasizing choice over bureaucracy, people over government, and flexibility over Washington control.

Education: This is Bush's strong suit. He is at his best when extolling high standards, rigorous testing, accountability, and giving parents choices when schools fail. Gore's tired proposals on class size, new buildings, and higher teacher pay are obvious sops to his union base. Bush should continue to hammer his themes and paint Gore as part of the failed status quo.

The wild card was/is personality. Gore's over bearing personality and penchant for exaggeration can turn people off. It is a likely explanation of why he gets little credit for the economic good times. Bush, in contrast, seems human and genuine. As a result, Gore has been unable to get much traction here, and his debate performance is not likely to change anything.

In Ohio, if nothing changes Bush wins.