11/01/00 11:00 a.m.
High Hopes in Ohio
A GOP sweep.

By Kevin Holtsberry, freelance writer based in Ohio

et's face it, this election is close — excruciatingly close. Human beings are fickle. Polling is a difficult art full of potential pitfalls. Given the fluidity of this election, with control of both Congress and the White House at stake, November 7 will be a long night for a great many people.

So, let's stick with what we do know here in Ohio.

First, Bush will win Ohio. Forget the OSU poll showing Gore up by two points. In every other poll Bush has been consistently ahead and in some polls is actually gaining ground. Bush has the edge in money, organization, and motivation on the ground. The Gore organization is working hard to quell any rumors that they are "writing off" Ohio, but in reality they can't afford to keep spending if they are not moving the numbers. The Democratic party is spending money here, but Gore has pulled his ads and is not planning to visit.

Second, Sen. Mike DeWine will be reelected. DeWine has a massive war chest while his opponent Ted Celeste was cut off from the Democratic fundraising machine and left to fend for himself. No matter what Celeste tried to do, no matter what issue he tried to raise, he could not change the fact that DeWine is an experienced, mild-mannered, centrist, public servant, with ten times more money. Celeste is so broke and so desperate for media attention that he recently announced that he was launching an Internet-only ad--unfortunately that is all he can afford.

In the race for the Ohio supreme court, things get a little muddy. The odds seem to favor the reelection of Justice Resnick. She is an incumbent with high-name recognition. Republican dominance and Bush's success are offset by her lack of party designation. Business leaders and Republican activists will put everything they can into this race but it is an uphill battle. Ugly, important, possible — but uphill.

Lastly, the Tiberi-O'Shaugnessy congressional race is down to hand-to-hand combat. Each candidate has plastered the airwaves with TV and radio ads and is looking for every last vote. This race has largely mirrored the presidential race in terms of issues — prescription drugs, Social Security, taxes, etc. Both are mainstream establishment candidates who will vote their parties' platform. Tiberi has the slight edge but O'Shaughnessy could pull an upset. A large Bush margin would likely give Tiberi the turnout he needs for victory.

Republicans here are working extremely hard at every level to avoid any overconfidence and to push turnout for the whole ticket. If in a week the GOP controls all three branches of government at the state and national level (which is possible this year), it will have all been worth it.