10/20/00 1:25 p.m.
Philly Teachers for Bush?
A teachers’ strike in the city could spell havoc for Dems.

By Sean Duffy, president of the Commonwealth Foundation

ith the polls increasingly showing the presidential race in Pennsylvania neck-and-neck, George W. Bush may get a boost from the unlikeliest of sources: Philadelphia's teacher unions.

The Philadelphia Federation of Teachers — the local affiliate of the American Federation of Teachers and part of the AFL-CIO — has been threatening a city-wide strike that would put more than 200,000 children out of the classroom. Since kids don't vote in Philadelphia (as far as we know), how could a teacher strike affect Election Day, and help Republicans?

It's all about union solidarity.

Job one at a teacher strike is to set up picket lines at schools, so that teachers can wander back and forth and shout creative slogans like, "No Contract. No Peace." Schools are also very popular places for voting to occur, especially in Philadelphia, where 420 polling sites will be housed in schools. No self-respecting Teamster, or unionized city worker, is going to cross a PFT picket line to deliver voting machines inside schools.

Problem for Democrats. Nirvana for Republicans.

Like most major cities in industrial states, Philadelphia is the electoral mother church of the Pennsylvania Democratic party. Yesterday, it was host to a downtown labor-backed rally featuring liberal warhorse U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy. Racking up huge numbers in the city is key for Democrats to offset the gains Republicans score elsewhere in the state. Conversely, when Republicans hold down their losses in Philly, it's a sign that they are headed for a win.

Imagine the confusion if delivery of machines is delayed, if polling places can't open on time, or if the city must shift voting to alternative sites. Imagine the number of voters — already being dragged to the polls by unions and other arms of the Democratic Party — who will get frustrated and go home. In a state that polls show is a dead heat, that number could be just enough to lock in a Bush win, and provide an even greater margin of victory for incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum.

Teacher-union leaders are playing coy with the threat of an election-disrupting strike, believing that the leverage will cause Democrats to put pressure on Philadelphia Mayor John Street — also a Democrat — to reach a union-friendly contract agreement. And a planned meeting tomorrow in the city between union officials and Vice President Al Gore should produce a rhetorical kabuki dance.

If there is one place that Al Gore is Superman in Pennsylvania, it's Philadelphia. But talk of teacher unions poised to toss of chunk of kryptonite indicates more trouble in the Democratic base. As a result, it could be George Bush who soars to victory in Pennsylvania.