Republicans in Michigan are breathing a sigh of relief today - and not only because President Bush won a second term, despite narrowly losing Michigan.

In Detroit, mostly white Republican poll watchers dispatched to monitor mostly-black city vote counting encountered uncomfortable, racially charged situations. Poll watchers overseeing absentee vote-counting at Cobo Center, for example, reported widespread fraud in the counting of ballots. The incident raised the specter of a politically dicey GOP lawsuit, a move now less urgent given Bush's national victory.

"Craziest thing I've ever seen," said one poll watcher. "They had 100 tables and just five poll watchers trying to monitor them. Every table had a pile of empty ballots. If the machine rejected a ballot, the workers would just take a fresh ballot, fill it in the way they thought the voter wanted (Detroit voted heavily for Kerry), and then put THAT ballot through the machine." The poll watcher also reported unsigned ballots being counted in the machines, a violation of absentee procedures.

Alarmed by this open fraud, the party brought in more poll watchers only to be confronted, according to a Detroit Free Press account, by a Kerry campaign lawyer "who arrived and began yelling at the 20-30 GOP lawyers." Policemen were called to restore order to the proceedings after which the additional Republican poll watchers were all escorted off the premises.

The Cobo vote fraud was the most serious incident in an evening that included a judge ruling for Republicans when poll watchers were cast out of other polling places. Democratic voters, in turn, complained that "they felt intimidated by a stranger watching them and wanting to check identification" according the Free Press account. All in all, an unsettling evening here in Southeast Michigan.

In 1978, Minnesota Republicans ousted a Democratic incumbent governor and picked up two senate seats; 1978 became famous as the year of "the Minnesota massacre." While not quite a "Minnesota massacre" in reverse, the outcome of the election yesterday represents a disappointing defeat for Minnesota Republicans.

Not only did we fail to carry the state for President Bush (who lost here by roughly the same 60,000-vote margin that he lost by in 2000), but we also lost the substantial 81-53 Republican majority that we had won in the Minnesota state House of Representatives in 2002. After last night, that majority is hanging by a thread at 68-66.

While state Republicans expected that their majority in the state House would shrink by four or five seats, I think it's fair to say that no one anticipated the magnitude of the Democrats' pickup in the state House. The AP story on the state House races is "Democrats win big, pull nearly even in House with one race outstanding."

What happened? The losses hurt. Among the defeated is state Rep. Lynda Boudreau, targeted by the Democrats for her crucial role in helping to enact Minnesota's concealed-carry gun law in the past legislative session. Threre's no way to put a happy face on the defeat of a warrior like Boudreau.

As Mark Twain said of Wagner's music, however, it's not as bad as it sounds. First, with respect to the presidential contest, the virtually identical margin of the Bush loss in Minnesota in 2000 and 2004 conceals significant progress by state Republicans. In 2000, Minnesota was the site of one of Ralph Nader's best performances; Nader won five percent of the vote (126,000 votes) statewide. This year, although Nader was on the ballot in Minnesota, he was a nonfactor; his angry voters went for Kerry.

Nevertheless, Republicans increased the number of votes for Bush by 230,000 votes, a number sufficient to keep Kerry's margin of victory here to the same three percent by which Gore edged Bush. This was not an insignificant accomplishment, and it provides ground for optimism.

In the state House races, Republicans simply lost the ground they had gained in 2002. They are now back where they were in 2000, with the same 68-66 majority. Disappointing but not devastating. In 2006, Minnesota's popular Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty figures to be on the top of the ticket while the Democrats seek to defend the seat of Minnesota's disgraceful Senator Mark Dayton.

Moreover, Congressman Mark Kennedy held off a strong, well-funded challenge by celebrity newcomer Patty Wetterling. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports the outcome of the race in "Kennedy wins 6th District contest over Wetterling."

Accordingly, we'll do more than lick our wounds until 2006. We'll aim to regain the ground lost this year, exploit the Democrats' vulnerabilites with Dayton (Kennedy himself might be a formidable challenger to Dayton), and build on the expanded base that the president and our efforts on his behalf leave us with this year.

K-Lo was right about PA being closer than everyone thinks.

In 2000 Gore won by a greater margin in PA:

47% Bush: 2,264,309
51% Gore: 2,465,412

In 2004, with 99% of all precincts reporting, things were closer:

49% Bush 2,746,856
51% Kerry 2,868,674

As predicted, the Achilles heal for Republicans like Bush in PA was the Democrat juggernaut called Philadelphia county.

The vote totals in Philadelphia County were just too much for W, who lost that county: 517,054 (80%)-124,710 (20%). That's a loss of a little less than 400,000 in ONE COUNTY, and a bigger Democrat candidate vote total than when Gore beat Bush in Philly by nearly 350,000! In 2000 Bush lost that county 99,234 (18%) to 441,834 (80%).

While one can argue that Bush could have done better in other counties, (he lost 3 of the 4 big Philly suburb Republican-registration-Democrat-voting counties, lost Allegheny County and Lackawanna by a little more than he probably hoped, etc) 400,000 votes is a heck of a lot to make up, especially when Bush only
lost the state by 119,818.

The lesson to be learned from this election is that Senator Rick Santorum is going to be in an extremely tough 2006 race if he faces a Philadelphia area Joe Hoeffel or Allyson Schwartz. Former Philly Mayor and PA Governor Ed Rendell will be up for reelection, meaning the Democrat Philly base will already be energized. (Rendell is also very popular with SEPA's staple liberal Republicans.)

This will not be another quiet Klink/Santorum contest. Santorum's recent party-before-principle behavior in the Toomey/Specter primary has alienated some of his conservative base, while his recent controversial remarks have alienated others and fired up the anti-Santorum Democrat left. With gigantic Philly turnout figures in 2000, 2002, and 2004 and Rendell on the ticket, a Philly area candidate could potentially wreck Santorum and send a hardcore leftist
into the Senate.

GOP Gov. Craig Benson lost here to a previously unknown Democrat who pounded him incessantly on his integrity. (Benson's administration had constant bad publicity from ethically challenged appointees.) Benson was probably the most serious government reformer in office in the country, and he's now been replaced by a Democrat who has pledged to veto a sales or income tax, but who has refused to say what he personally thinks about either one — and who won big with state employees whose jobs Benson's reform efforts had threatened.

KErry concedes at 1

w. became the first incumbent to win after the Redskins lost at home.

President Bush won Ohio by more than 134,000 votes. The Secretary of State's office said this margin is statistically insurmountable even after the 135,149 provisional ballots are considered. For Kerry to win Ohio, every provisional ballot cast would have to be counted and 93 percent of them would have to be votes for Senator Kerry. It is statistically impossible for this to happen, and we are certain President Bush has won Ohio.

Provisional ballots are cast when a person's name is not on the list of eligible voters at a polling place or because a person did not provide identification as required by the Helping America Vote Act (HAVA). The purpose of provisional balloting is to protect properly registered voters whose names are not on the rolls due to a processing error or administrative mistake.

According to Federal law and Ohio law, provisional ballots are eligible to be counted only if the voter is registered and cast their provisional ballot in the proper precinct. Election officials must determine that the voter:


* Registered to vote

* Voted in the proper precinct

* Did not cast another ballot in the election

* Completed and signed all required affirmation statements

* Provided acceptable proof of identity by the close of polls on Election Day if required by HAVA.

It is unlikely all the provisional ballots cast in Ohio are eligible to be counted. During the 2004 Illinois primary, only 17 percent of provisional ballots were eligible to be counted. In Chicago, only seven percent of provisional ballots were determined to be cast by an eligible voter. There are not enough provisional ballots to give Kerry the margin he needs to win Ohio. Even if all the provisional ballots cast in Ohio are counted, virtually all of them would have to contain votes for Kerry for him to win the state. This is statistically impossible.

Under Ohio law, the board of elections shall begin verifying the provisional ballots immediately following the election and shall complete by the conclusion of the official canvass (November 13).

Read our Oct. 25 editorial

Pa still appears closer than Ohio. (A point I made hours ago)

Moe Freedman from "Jews for George" reports:

I was in the room at COBO Hall in Detroit when the police came and threw the republican challengers out, (they are counting all the Absentee ballots for the entire city of Detroit) we had finally got enough people down there to make a difference so the Dems manufactured a ruckus and got the police to throw all the challengers out of the room. They were manufacturing Dem votes wholesale out of blank ballots for any spoiled ballot that came out of the machine for any reason even when we challenged ballots it didn't do much good they counted everything no signature on the absentee ballot envelope? No problem. that there were thousands of blank ballots lying around is a crime but the whole thing was simply shocking. The Republicans eventually got 10 people back in, (I didn't make the cut) What's going on is an absolute crime.

A reader: "Driving in to work this morning (being in PA) I drive past a TON of Kedwards signs. Before today, they always made me sigh or grind my teeth. Today, all they do is give me a big, goofy grin."

NBC just call Minn for Kerry

A journalist:

Just got back (finally) from the state house in Columbus to my hotel 5
blocks away. According to Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, There are
quite a few more provisional ballots than 75,000. The only counts they
received on provisional ballots came in from 66 of Ohio's 88 counties. Most
of the biggest counties, as you might imagine, are rather swamped with
provisional ballots, and Blackwell said it would probably take until later
Wednesday until those poll workers — who had their hands full processing a
high turnout — get around to counting all of them and determining if they
are valid. He refused to guess how many, but the running estimate among
reporters in the state house tonight was about 175,000 or so.



11 days out of the election, when the deadline for overseas absentee ballots
hits, the counties will finish double-checking the provisional ballots and
count the overseas absentees (mostly military). A Bush victory will be
quickly officially certified by then. But, of course, that is discounting a
possible Democratic litigation blizzard, challenging the way counties
determine the validity of provisional ballots. I expect, at least for a few
days, for the Dems to try that strategy, unless they are called off by the
Kerry people. And do we really think that will happen?



As and aside, Blackwell did not cover himself with glory tonight, at least
in the eyes of reporters waiting for hours for any updates from him on waht
was going on. Even his flack refused to come up and give us any information,
or even answer our basic election prodecures questions while we were all
working on deadline. Suddenly, we noticed on the line of television screens
Blackwell hopping from network to network for about another hour. Finally,
at about 1 a.m., he came in. The reporters were quite annoyed. (I was mildly
annoyed. My deadline had passed, so Blackwell's comments wouldn't have made
my story, but I took his snub as a basic lack of disrespect. At least send
your flunkie up to answer questions).

that's ridiculous by the way. We've been prepping for this for four years. I'm sorry. I have no patience.

From lawyer: "The problem that Kerry’s lawyers face now is “harmless error.” That is, even if Kerry’s team can find voting anomalies, courts will not order extraordinary remedies if they can’t change the outcome. Thus, if meddling with the provisional ballot process couldn’t change the outcome, then the courts will not order extraordinary remedies regarding those counts or other potential recounts. For those who are looking for analogies in previous elections, note that many states (such as Texas) exercised a policy in 2000 whereby they stopped counting absentee ballots when they found that it was statistically impossible for the absentee ballots to change the outcomes."

in Ohio: "It is done, but Kerry is not going to recognize it. With more than a 120,000 margin for Bush, the provisional ballots just don’t matter. I have seen nothing to suggest that it is anything other than statistically impossible for Kerry to win Ohio. Kerry is appealing to the disgruntled voters who believe that Gore won in 2000. I think that if he pushes this much longer, it will look shameful. "

I am sure you all have been listening to the same TV I have been listening to at the Ashbrook Center with about 100 students and friends. So you know as much as I do. Kerry isn't conceding Ohio because, they claim, there are about 250,000 provisional or absentee ballots that have yet to be counted and — because Kerry is down by circa 125,000 votes, with about 97% of the votes counted — it is still possible that Kerry can carry the state. Not so, in my opinion. And let me point you to a massive fact explained by Ohio's Secretary of State Ken Blackwell: There are somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 provisional or absentee ballots out there. This means that Bush's lead cannot be overcome, unless Kerry weans unnatural and huge majority of those votes. And one more point: Bush's votes have climbed in the last hour or so because most of the large Demo districts (Cuyahoga County, for example) are already in and what is left (circa 3%) will come from predominantly GOP areas. So, Bush has won Ohio, and Kerry will not admit it. In effect, as Brit Hume just implied, if Kerry had the moral integrity of a Richard Nixon, he would concede.

One more quick point on this important election. At the end Bush will won the majority of the national aggregate vote (at the moment at about 51%) and this is important because of 2000. It is a moral victory.

Yes, a moral victory. Kind of like a mandate, except better.

Joe Cella from Ave Maria List tells me:

Shannon Thune lost by 2,600 in '02 and he lost Todd by 1,500.



Given the fact that Pennington has 15 precincts still out, and he won that by 8,000 in '02, Thune's looking quite good.



Smattering of other precincts out, but I don't see them making a difference.

I am ready to project Iowa for President Bush. For the first time since 1984, Iowa’s seven electoral vote will be cast for the GOP nominee!

To win NH, Bush had to win Manchester, NH's strongly Democratic largest city. He did. By something like 300 votes. Still down overall, but winning Manchester keeps hope alive.