As Ed already mentioned, the conservative guess is that 35 senators will vote against Elena Kagan’s nomination to the Supreme Court. If that guess is right, only one Democratic Supreme Court nominee will have received more “no” votes — Wheeler Hazard Peckham, who was rejected by a margin of 41–32 in 1894.

That remarkable level of Senate opposition reflects the public’s ambivalence about her nomination. The latest Gallup survey found that only 46 percent of Americans want to see the Senate confirm Kagan. According to Gallup,

If confirmed, Kagan would be the first successful nominee in recent years whose nomination was backed by less than a majority of Americans in the final poll before the Senate confirmation vote (or, in the case of Harriet Miers, before her nomination was withdrawn).

Instead of picking the kind of mainstream, restrained judge who would faithfully interpret the Constitution, President Obama nominated an inexperienced political insider who will invent new constitutional rights and go along with his agenda to expand government. She may get confirmed, but not with the sort of broad bipartisan Senate or public support that President Obama could have achieved.