Bench Memos

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Grading My Predictions


Here are the predictions that I offered on January 3 (six days before the hearing began):

1. Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee will perform to the same level of, ahem, competence that they displayed in the Roberts hearing. Alito, by contrast, will demonstrate a quiet grace and legal mastery.

2. Alito’s nomination will be approved by the Judiciary Committee by a 10-8 party-line vote.

3. Democrats will not make any effort to filibuster Alito’s nomination.

4. On or around January 20, Alito’s nomination will be confirmed by the full Senate, with 55-65 votes in support.

5. Alito will be a superb justice.

I’ll give myself full credit on 1 and 2, and near-full credit on 4 (I was off on the timing). On 3, obviously I underestimated how foolish and self-destructive the Democrats could be. I remain highly confident on 5, but check back with me in 10 years.


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