Prediction: Alito Over 60 Votes

by Jonathan H. Adler

The week Judge Alito was nominated to replace Justice Sandra Day O’Connor I predicted that he would garner just over 60 votes in favor of his confirmation. My guess was 62-38 – enough to show serious Democratic opposition, and the clear ability to filibuster a subsequent pick to replace a more liberal justice, without triggering the nuclear option – which would leave Democrats defenseless to stop another nominee should there be another retirement before Bush leaves office. As Alito’s confirmation hearings approach I think that prediction still makes sense.