On SCOTUSBlog, Tom Goldstein predicts that Miers will be rejected by the Senate. I have tremendous respect for Tom as a court-watcher and legal analyst – but I don’t put much faith in his initial political analysis. It is extremely unlikely Miers will be rejected. Yes the GOP base is dispirited by this nomination, but not enough to urge for her rejection by the Senate. One should also keep in mind that she will be heavily supported by the business community. While many Democrats will complain about her lack of a paper trail and refusal to answer questions – and will relish the opportunity to quiz her in depth on constitutional matters – it is unlikely they will oppose her in the end because they have no reason to believe they would get a replacement nominee to her left. Indeed, several Democrats had urged the President to consider Miers for the post. Barring some terrible revelation – or a truly disastrous confirmation hearing – I think she will get through the Senate before Christmas.
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