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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Nevada’s Senate Race Looks Quite Different Than Last Month, With One Exception



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Mason-Dixon is one of the pollsters I trust the most, so if they show Sharron Angle in the lead in Nevada’s GOP Senate primary, I think that’s an accurate snapshot on Primary Day Eve. Having said that, the remaining 13 percent or so undecided have to go somewhere. Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian need to hope those remaining undecided break heavily in their direction.

“Angle is the favorite at this point, but I wouldn’t say it’s a done deal,” said pollster Brad Coker. “She’s got the momentum, but there’s still 13 percent on the table.”

“Angle is benefiting from Lowden’s demise,” Coker said. “Can Lowden win? I have my doubts. At this point my money is on Angle. But if Tark pulls a rabbit out of his hat, I won’t be shocked.”

I noted earlier that some of Sharron Angle’s positions and past statements could prove quite problematic in a general election; over at Hot Air, one reader charges that I must be on the take from the Lowden campaign. Obviously not true. Beyond that, I feel bad for this guy; yeah, pal, I should only tell you the good news, and make sure to hide anything that might prove detrimental to the candidate you prefer. Remember, it’s best to head into a general election with your eyes and ears shut tightly against any information that you don’t want to hear; that’s the best way to be prepared for the inevitable avalanche of attack ads from a cash-rich Democratic incumbent.

The same reader notes that because he sees Lowden ads, the article must mean we write nice things about advertisers and bad things about candidates that don’t advertise. Wrong again. Many campaign web ads target incoming web browsers from a particular location. Right now, I don’t see Lowden ads; I’m typing this from South Carolina, and I see gubernatorial candidate Henry McMaster ads all over NRO. (Sometimes they advertise nationally; up in Virginia, I saw a lot of Marco Rubio ads.) My understanding is that many campaigns purchase ads in bulk to run on a multitude of political sites including NRO. That’s how you sometimes see ads for Democratic candidates on the site; they purchase ads on all political sites instead of just liberal ones.

Back to Nevada: I’d note that even with Angle’s flaws as a candidate, extremely well-known incumbent Harry Reid is peaking at about 43 percent, and has been at 40 percent or below for much of the year. He’s spent more than $10 million already on this campaign. His numbers remind me quite a bit of Jon Corzine, former governor of New Jersey. Corzine dumped a tsunami of attack ads against Chris Christie, and narrowed the gap some, but in the end, the voters were tired of what they were getting. Even if Angle pulls a full Rand Paul — win the primary, and then generate more controversies immediately — Reid may be too damaged to pull ahead.


Tags: Danny Tarkanian , Harry Reid , Sharron Angle , Sue Lowden


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