Briefly returning to the South Carolina GOP gubernatorial runoff . . . If all of the supporters of Nikki Haley and Gresham Barrett return to the polls in two weeks, and all of the supporters of Henry McMaster and Andre Bauer stay home, the result would add up to a 70–30 victory for Haley.
Interestingly, the Haley campaign released internal poll numbers showing something roughly in that neighborhood:
The poll shows that Haley’s support has shot up 13 points since her dominant showing in Tuesday’s Republican primary and she now leads Barrett by a 62-28 margin, according to the poll. Haley finished with 49 percent of the vote on Tuesday, while Barrett trailed a distant second with 22 percent.
It seems clear that Barrett won’t drop out; he may hope or think that some guy claiming to have had an affair with Haley will produce genuine evidence sometime between now and the runoff. If he concedes, he knows what happens; if he stays in, he’s got a shot if she implodes.