Team Fiorina is excited about the first poll showing their gal ahead, 47 percent to 45 percent, over Sen. Barbara Boxer in California. But it isn’t that surprising; there have been enough polls showing a close race — back in March, the Field Poll and PPP showed Boxer ahead by a single point — that a Fiorina lead was likely to appear in one eventually.
A bit more surprising is Meg Whitman suddenly jumping to a 7-percentage-point lead; she had been ahead for a stretch in March and Jerry Brown had seemed to close the gap and pull ahead in recent weeks.
I’d make one note of caution about this poll: Is Obama really at 41 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable and 14 percent neutral in California? Note that his favorable rating — distinct from his job approval — has been much higher in most polls in this state. Then again, California’s had unemployment above 12 percent since December; perhaps the patience of Golden State voters is running out.
If over 40% of the people of this country still like Obama, we are in trouble. What is it going to take...?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAlso, should I be worried and dislike Whitman because she is speaking out against the Arizona law?
Personally, I think these Obama personal favorable numbers are all manipulated anyway or at the very least self censored. If 50-60% of the public thinks Obama stinks at employment, immigration, etc but say he has great personal favorables? Really? More likely, respondents say they like him so they won't be accused of racism.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseImagine how much better we might feel about these poll results if the GOP had two actual conservatives in these races. If it were not for possible actual GOP control of the Senate, I would care little who won these races. Californians deserve bad government, and in a democracy with an honest vote count (ie. not Minnesota), people get the government they deserve.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'm with Bandmom. I never got the split in Obama's favorable ratings and job approval numbers. We who are truly color-blind have no problem saying that we don't like him personally and politically for where he's taking the country we love.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCalifornians have had it with the labor unions and the politicians who see our tax money as their own slush fund. Really. We're done. Out with Boxer. In with Carly and Meg.
Good point Bandmom -- surprised this meme hasn't gotten some traction yet. What with all the concern about the "Bradley effect" in Obama's election (i.e. white folks say they will vote for a black candidate when polled but don't actually do it).
It does make a lot of sense that there would be a "social acceptability bias" in Obama's poll numbers (maybe "politically correct bias" is a better term.)
My guess is it's probably a certain "slightly left of center" type who is most likely to do this -- cons/Reps have no problem saying they don't like him, and most libs/Dems will stay committed to the rhetoric no matter what actually happens.
I think Obama's "cultural cool" is propping up his poll numbers (it's not cool to make fun of him in the mainstream culture, YET) -- but I would not bank on that translating into votes. Folks who essentially give Obama a pass "because he's black and cool" are not going to be very reliable or motivated voters.
His pool of popularity may be wide, but I think it's not even an inch deep . . . he's still more symbol than politician to a lot of folks.
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