On Election Day 2008, CNN’s exit poll showed a Maryland electorate that consisted of 51 percent self-identified Democrats, 28 percent Republicans, and 21 percent independents.
Today, Public Policy Polling unveiled a poll showing Democratic governor Martin O’Malley leading Republican Robert Ehrlich by 3 percentage points. The poll’s sample splits 60 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican, 12 percent independents.
As I noted in yesterday’s post, African-Americans made up 25 percent of the electorate in 2008, and 23 percent in 2006 and 2004. The PPP sample presumes that proportionally, African-Americans make up the same share of the 2010 electorate as they did in 2008.
Either this sort of thing bugs you or it doesn’t. Clearly, using really heavily Democratic samples doesn’t bother the guys at PPP.