In Arkansas, Republican John Boozman leads the incumbent Democrat, Sen. Blanche Lincoln, 57 percent to 32 percent.

The more surprising result is in the governor’s race, where 49.5 percent of respondents said they would vote for Mike Beebe, the incumbent Democrat, and 40.5 percent said they would vote for Republican Jim Keet.

But don’t get too excited about Keet’s chances: “Beebe’s massive fundraising advantage — $2.7 million to Keet’s $59,000 as of June 30 — is going to quickly put more distance between the two candidates unless other circumstances surface.”