I’m stuck. If I point out the most recent polls in Nevada’s Senate race, those who remember my early skepticism about Sharron Angle’s chances will accuse me of saying, “See, I told you so.” If I don’t point out the most recent polls in Nevada, then I’m hiding the bad news from my readership, who overwhelmingly want to see Harry Reid defeated and/or deported.
Public Policy Polling, for whatever it’s worth: “Where Lowden trailed Reid only 51-41 with moderate voters, Angle is facing a 64-28 deficit. The price of nominating Angle for Nevada Republicans appears to be 26 points with moderate voters.”
The Las Vegas Sun’s Jon Ralston, a pretty good local observer of Nevada politics:
Sharron Angle is dead, one in an occasional series:
With Angle’s hot air balloon leaking helium about as rapidly as oil left that Gulf well — 45 days and counting and the GOP Senate nominee still has not plugged it — the question is whether she can survive the fall to earth.
At least three polls I know of show Angle trailing Harry Reid, including Friday’s Mason-Dixon survey that has the Senate majority leader ahead, 44-37, outside the margin of error. Even if you don’t believe one of the polls, the trend is inescapable and the race’s dynamic is fundamentally altered.
Coming up on the 100-day mark until the election — and only three months until early voting starts — Reid remains manifestly unpopular, with more than half of those surveyed indicating they will not vote for him. But his strategy of driving people away from Angle and into either a “none of the above” posture or a oh-how-it-pains-me-to-vote-for-him stance has worked to perfection.
Having said all that, Nevada’s unemployment hit 14.2 percent today. Really tough environment for an incumbent.
What is sad is that I don't see John Cornyn and the RSSC coming to help her. See the Ruling Class article in the AmSpec to understand why. Senator DeMint and Sarah Palin may be the only help she gets.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis is not rocket science. To win, Sharon Angle needs only to make the race about Harry Reid and not about her.
It would be nice if the GOP establishment would help, but I have come to expect little from them. Spending money and jumping on other people's bandwagons; that they are good at.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseReid can only knock Angle down, but he can't gain any support for himself. He is still a well-known incumbent stuck near 44% in the polls.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuseangle will lose handily. Lowden and tarkanian would have won by 4-6%. The problem, is that a certain number of republicans would rather see Reid in there, than a pushed Angle knowing she would lose. That's why she "came out of no where" to win the nomination. I wish she'd drop out.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDo remember that guys like Rick Santorum or Sharon Angle can win in a year like this. The real problem is when they have to run for reelection in a normal year.
As long as Reid is kept in the low 40's, the undecideds will break decidedly for Angle and she'll win in a squeaker. I wouldn't have picked her but I still believe she wins.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIs is that hard for Angle to make this race about Reid? Regardless of what her negatives are, can't she run ads reminding people of Reid's negatives? I mean, he has a couple of negatives, at least, as I recall. Why does it seem, from what I'm reading, that Reid is the only one reminding voters of his opponent's negatives?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI don't see why this is that hard for Angle. How's this for an ad
"Hi, I'm Sharon Angle. Harry Reid is spending millions of ad dollars trying to convince you I'm some kind of nut because he's got nothing positive he can say about himself.
So I'll tell you exactly what you'll get if you elect me as your next Senator. I'll focus like a laser on keeping our country from going bankrupt. That's why I'm running, and that's what you'll get. That's my promise to you.
I'm Sharon Angle and I approve of this message.
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