It’s easy to overlook some of these House poll results.
July 20: “In an election for U.S. House of Representatives in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District today, Republican State Senator Robert Hurt defeats incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello 58 percent to 35 percent, according to this latest exclusive WDBJ-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.”
July 15: “Republican Jonathan Paton and U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords are in a statistical dead heat in the race for the [Arizona] CD8 congressional seat, a poll by Paton’s campaign says. . . . Paton was given the nod by 45 percent in the survey, with Giffords getting 44 percent. 11 percent were undecided. The poll of 300 likely voters, conduced by the Tarrance Group and paid for by the Paton campaign, has a margin of error of 5.8 percent, putting the two in a statistical tie.”
July 15: “A poll commissioned by his campaign shows Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R) leading 13-term Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 56 percent to 37 percent. The Tarrance Group surveyed 400 likely voters on July 12 and 13. Its poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.”
July 13: “An internal poll from the Pat Meehan campaign obtained by PoliticsPA shows the Republican congressional candidate leading Democratic opponent Bryan Lentz by 21 points, 47 percent to 26 percent, largely on the strength of a nearly 2-to-1 advantage in name ID. The poll, conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates, surveyed 400 ‘likely 2010 voters’ from in the 7th Congressional District on June 16 and 17. The questions, provided in the polling memo, appear straight forward, and campaign officials say those surveyed were not read any information about the candidates before answering.”
July 9: “A July 6 voter survey shows Republican state Rep. Kristi Noem with a narrowing lead over incumbent Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in the race for South Dakota’s only seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The Rasmussen Reports survey of 500 likely South Dakota voters showed Noem with 49 percent to 44 percent for Herseth Sandlin.”
June 21: “Fresh off his primary election victory, a new poll shows Republican businessman Scott Rigell leading U.S. Rep. Glenn Nye, the Democratic incumbent, 41-35 percent heading towards the November election for the [Virginia] 2nd Congressional District seat.”
June 21: “Republican challenger Rick Berg continues to hold a modest advantage again this month in his contest with Democratic incumbent Earl Pomeroy for North Dakota’s only House seat. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in North Dakota shows Berg with 51 percent support to Pomeroy’s 44 percent.”
June 19: “[Arkansas] Second District Congressional candidate, U.S. Army Reservist and former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin’s campaign today released results of an internal poll showing Griffin leading Democratic nominee state Sen. Joyce Elliott by 16 percentage points, 50 percent to 34 percent. The live interview poll was conducted by Alexandria, Va.-based OnMessage, Inc. June 13-14 using a sample of 400 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-4.9%.”
June 17: “Ohio Democratic Rep. Betty Sutton is in a real race against wealthy care-dealer Tom Ganley, according to a new poll conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee. Ganley stood at 44 percent to 41 percent for Sutton in the Public Opinion Strategies survey.”
June 15: “Two weeks after securing his party’s nomination, Mississippi state Sen. Alan Nunnelee released a new campaign survey that showed him with an 8 point lead over Rep. Travis Childers (D) in a race that has long been at the top of GOP target lists this cycle. The new poll, which was conducted for Nunnelee by the Tarrance Group, showed Nunnelee with 50 percent, the Congressman at 42 percent and 8 percent undecided. The survey of 303 likely voters was conducted June 8 and 9 and had a 5.6 point margin of error.”
In most cycles, it’s really rare to see a challenger leading an incumbent congressman; we’ve seen eight in six weeks, and over a diverse range of districts. (Two of the above polls are for currently Democrat-held open seat races, Griffin and Meehan.)
I can hear the objections: “Most of these polls were commissioned by Republican campaigns!” Fine. Take as many grains of salt as you deem necessary. But note that Democrats are doing their own polls and refuse to release the results:
Amid a troubled political environment, nearly 2 dozen House Dems commissioned polls over the last 3 months, according to reports filed with the FEC. But those polls weren’t made public, leaving some GOPers to believe incumbents are beginning to run scared.
The members who conducted polling are among the GOP’s top targets this year. Reps. Mark Schauer (D-MI), Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), Chet Edwards (R-TX), Ike Skelton (D-MO), Rick Boucher (D-VA) and Chris Carney (D-PA) were among those who paid for polling.
Perhaps all these Democrats are just modest about how well they’re doing in their districts.
