Over on the home page, I take a look at 20 House races where a donation to a GOP candidate might make the biggest difference.
The piece was partially inspired by readers who write in to me, saying they have a limited amount to donate and want to make sure they get the most “bang for the buck.” Now, I don’t endorse (nor do I have a hand in National Review’s endorsements), nor do I think I’m here to tell you who to vote for, and I figure the same thing goes for telling you which candidates deserve donations. You guys don’t need me telling you how to spend your own money.
(By the way, have you subscribed to the magazine and NRO Digital? Bought your tickets for the NR cruise? Donated to our fundraising drive? Sponsored our advertisers? Okay, other than that, I don’t tell you how to spend your own money.)
But not all races are created equal, and certain House races fit a certain profile — a promising GOP candidate, a district with demographics that make a GOP win a possibility, and a Democratic incumbent with some vulnerabilities but with enormous cash reserves. In most of these cases, I would argue that the Republican challenger doesn’t need to outraise the incumbent, just to raise enough so that they can make sure their message gets out on a comparable scale. Other factors (dissatisfaction with the state of the economy, anger over health care, highly motivated GOP voters) should be enough to put them over the top.
Obviously, self-funders who could write themselves a check were off the list. I didn’t want to pick promising candidates who faced truly enormous financial disparities — say, Anna Little, who faces a 256-to-1 ratio with longtime New Jersey incumbent Frank Pallone — and looked for candidates who had already demonstrated some ability to raise funds but who had spent their reserves during competitive primaries. In some of these races, the issue of funds is fundamental because of the high cost of television advertising in that district. After chewing over the issue with consultants and strategists who are watching this year’s House races closely, I came up with those 20.
I’m sure a lot of folks can make a strong case for some other ones; also, it’s worth noting that these races are constantly changing and evolving. A few months ago, Renee Ellmers’s bid against Rep. Bob Etheridge, North Carolina Democrat, probably wouldn’t have made the list; one “who are you?” neck-grabbing encounter and a subsequent poll changed the dynamic of that race. Between now and November, one of these candidates may implode, or other House races may suddenly appear much more competitive. Perhaps I’ll do a sequel.
UPDATE: I figure this morning 20 campaigns are happy to be on the list and getting the attention of NRO readers, but worried about being labeled “underfunded”; another 410 Republican House candidates are saying, why not me?
21
Jim,
I have a name to add to your list: Dan Debicella, Connecticut’s 4th district. CT-04 was the last New England district to have a Republican representative. In 2008, Democrat Jim Himes was able to squeak by incumbent Republican Chris Shays in large part due to a surge in newly registered Democrat voters in Bridgeport who turned out to support Barack Obama. If historical voting patterns return in 2010, then Himes will be in trouble.
The Cook Political Report lists incumbents by risk factors from zero to five. According to Cook, “even Democrats with just three risk factors could find themselves in serious political risk in 2010”. Himes has five risk factors – he supported the unpopular cap and trade bill, he supported Obamacare, his district leans Democrat only slightly, his opponent has over $200 k in cash, and he received under 55% in his last election (in fact, only 51%). Himes is a vulnerable incumbent who has not earned re-election.
If 2010 is a normal election year, Himes could be in trouble. If 2010 is a good year for Republicans, then Dan Debicella could be a new majority maker. That being said, Himes sits on powerful committees and he is well funded by the companies that he oversees. Himes has spread around a lot of taxpayer money and will be able to raise a lot of money in return. Anyone interested in an effective way to level the playing field can do so here: External Link
. Dan is a reformer in the mold of Paul Ryan. He is an effective advocate for the values of free enterprise and individual liberty who would well serve Fairfield County in Washington.
Chris DeMuth Jr.
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After reviewing this list, its obvious to me that Bobby Schilling, candidate in the IL 17th, is the best and most highly qualified candidate on this list. Jim was well ahead of the curve on Bobby, and even doubled down when incumbent Congressman Phil "I don't care about the constitution" Hare was caught blabbering after a heath care town hall meeting. Not to mention, Bobby probably has the best website out of all ...bobby2010.com.
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