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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Who’s the Most Vulnerable House Incumbent?



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Democrats currently hold 35 of the 40 seats deemed most likely to flip on this list assembled by the good folks at National Journal.

Charles Djou, the newest House Republican, is ranked 13th, which is farther from the top than I expected. Put another way, he’s one spot “safer” than Betsy Markey of Colorado, who’s getting a ton of outside help from liberal groups.

Also lower than I expected: Paul Kanjorski’s got money, but that’s about it, and he’s ranked 14; Carol Shea Porter, Democrat of New Hampshire, at 34. Higher than I expected: Ohio Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy jumped from 17 to 7; Democrat Harry Teague of New Mexico is now at 11.

The most vulnerable incumbent on their list is Anh Joseph Cao, Louisiana Republican. Interestingly, his campaign released a poll showing Cao up 51 percent to 26 percent on his nearest challenger in this heavily Democratic New Orleans district.

Of course, this is the National Journal ranking; you’ll find a different order of vulnerability from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Clearly, we need some sort of national playoff system to determine the true champion.


Tags: Betsy Markey , Carol Shea Porter , Charles Djou , Harry Teague , Mary Jo Kilroy , Paul Kanjorski


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