The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

The Pattern Continues: GOP’s Kelly Leads Dahlkemper, 48-37


The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette shows us the 13th poll in seven weeks showing a GOP challenger leading a Democrat incumbent:

An internal poll conducted by Republican firm the Tarrance Group for Mike Kelly’s campaign and the NRCC shows the Butler car dealer well ahead of Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, D-Erie, 48-37. The survey of 305 likely voters has a margin of error of 5.8 percent.

Time for the caveats: It’s a GOP poll, and similar surveys proved inaccurate in forecasting the Tim Burns-Mark Critz special election. Still, 11 points is a lot.

Some other notable numbers: Kelly, a former city councilman in Butler, carries an impressive 67 percent name recognition and 51 percent of voters think Dahlkemper does not deserve re-election.

The other polls are:

  • NM-1: Barela 51, Heinrich 45.
  • IL-17: Schilling 45, Hare 32. 
  • VA-5: Hurt 58, Perriello 35.
  • AZ-8: Paton 45, Giffords 44.
  • PA-11: Barletta 56, Kanjorski 37.
  • PA-7: Meehan 47, Lentz 26.*
  • VA-2: Rigell 41, Nye 35.
  • SD-AL: Noem 49, Herseth Sandlin 44.
  • ND-AL: Berg 51, Pomeroy 44.
  • AR-2 : Griffin 50, Elliott 34.*
  • OH-13: Ganley 44, Sutton 41.
  • MS-1: Nunnelee 50, Childers 42.

* Open-seat race in district currently represented by a Democrat.

All of the usual caveats stand, but if these polls are even close to accurate, we are on course for a November blowout of epic proportions.

Tags: Kathy Dahlkemper , Mike Kelly


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