I said the last Rasmussen poll showing Sharron Angle trailing by 2 — down from ahead by 3 in early July and ahead by 11 in early June — was “abysmal” news. Today’s Las Vegas Review-Journal poll showing Angle down 1, 43 percent to 42 percent, is actually pretty good news, all things considered.
Before the inevitable “Jim, you’ve lost your mind,” I think a key factor to focus upon is the trends within each individual pollster’s results. Rasmussen suggested a steady slide. This new poll is from Mason-Dixon, one of the longest-running and best-established pollsters. In their last one, Reid led, 44 percent to 37 percent.
So in Mason-Dixon’s sense of the race, Reid still can’t break 44 percent and has slid a bit; Angle has stopped the bleeding and is actually getting back some of those supporters who were wavering. (Angle’s biggest lead in a Mason-Dixon poll was 5 percentage points, back in January.)
I’d like to see some other polls show the same trend before I declare disaster averted. And Angle’s still in a race where she has to demonstrate she’s a better option than Reid, not merely an alternative; I’m wary of Nevada’s “none of the above” being listed on the ballot. But this has got to be the most reassuring trailing-by-1 poll of this cycle.
"Trailing by 1" is more accurately described as "a statistical dead heat." Sounds to me like the race is essentially tied. (If Angle is tied with Reid in the mid-40's right before election day, that's probably good for Angle isn't it?)
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