One reader in North Carolina hears through the grapevine that the Civitas Institute will release a poll in the near future showing Jeff Miller, Republican challenger, quite close to Rep. Heath Shuler, incumbent Democrat.
UPDATE: Minutes after I post this, the poll pops up in my e-mailbox:
The race for North Carolina’s 11th district Congressional seat is a dead heat (45 percent–44 percent) between Democratic incumbent Heath Shuler and Republican candidate Jeff Miller as the unaffiliated vote looks to become the deciding factor according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
According to the poll of 400 registered voters in that district, when asked who they would vote for if the election for United States House of Representatives were today, 45 percent of voters said they would vote for Shuler. Forty-four percent said they would vote for Miller, and 11 percent said they were undecided.
“Despite Shuler voting against many of the unpopular bills that have been passed by Congress, the unpopularity of President Obama and the Democratic Congress is making this a competitive race,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.
Shuler, who is currently serving his second Congressional term, has a -3 favorable rating (29 percent favorable–32 percent unfavorable) even though he holds a significant name advantage over his opponent. Thirty-six percent of voters said they are neutral on his candidacy.
Conversely, Miller, despite only 32 percent of voters having an opinion of him, has a net +6 favorable rating as 19 percent of voters view him favorably while 13 percent view him unfavorably. Thirty-six percent said their opinion is neutral.
Among independents — the fastest growing voter segment in North Carolina — just one percent have no opinion of Shuler while his favorable to unfavorable margin is 23 percent-38 percent. Thirty percent of independent voters said they have no opinion of Miller’s candidacy whereas his favorability margin is 23 percent-8 percent.
“Independent voters have already made up their minds about Shuler — many of whom view him unfavorably,” added Hayes. “Miller could have the advantage if he picks up the undecided independent vote.”
As I was saying, Miller shouldn’t get too cocky, of course; Heath Shuler has been in high-pressure, make-or-break competitions in Washington before, and the results were always . . . always . . . well, he’s been here before.
