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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Maybe Republicans Were on Vacation in Mid-July



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Back on July 20, I wrote:

A few readers are worried about the Gallup poll’s most recent generic-ballot survey, showing Democrats jumping to a big lead. One of my regulars warned me about paying too much attention to midsummer polls; with some Americans on vacation or otherwise distracted, the makeup of the samples can change a bit and pollsters can end up with some unusual results. (Then again, in an economy like this one, you might expect fewer Americans to be away on vacation in the middle of July.) Or perhaps it’s just the heat.

Yesterday Gallup put the Republicans back up by 5 percentage points. Were the past two weeks weird samples? Or is this week a weird sample?


Tags: Polling


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