KANSAS
Current GOP congressman Jerry Moran is very likely to be Kansas’s next senator. Lisa Johnston appears to be the Democrats’ sacrificial lamb.
Republican Tim Huelskamp is likely to be the next congressman from Kansas’s 1st district; it’s an R+23 district.
Stephene Moore, wife of current 3rd district congressman Dennis Moore, is the Democratic nominee in that district this year. Kevin Yoder won a crowded Republican primary and will probably be favored, but this one isn’t a done deal; the district tilts moderately Republican.
(Grover voice: “Mmm. Yoder. You seek Yoder.”)
In Kansas’s 4th district, Republican Mike Pompeo will take on Raj Goyle in an R+14 district.
MICHIGAN
This year is generating some results that are just eye-popping for the GOP. More than 1 million voted in the Republican gubernatorial primary in Michigan, while only 525,000 voted in the Democratic one. One could argue that the Republican primary fight was a bit more dramatic, but that doesn’t explain the nearly 2:1 margin.
Last night I mentioned that businessman Rick Snyder was the (somewhat) surprise winner in the GOP gubernatorial primary over two big names in the state, Rep. Pete Hoekstra and state attorney general Mike Cox. Snyder, relentlessly focused on Michigan’s dire economy, is perceived as less socially conservative than the other options, while Democrat Virg Bernero is deemed the more liberal option over state house speaker Andy Dillon. For conservatives, that may be mildly disappointing, but with Democrats conceding the middle, there’s potential for a big win by Snyder, with implications in closer races down-ticket.
The Republican primary in Michigan’s 1st district is probably going to need a recount: The AP puts Dan Benishek 12 votes ahead of Jason Allen.
One of Benishek’s guys tells me:
In the last two cycles where there was a competitive statewide primary, the total Republican vote was right around 35,000. Last night, 71,069 Republican votes were cast in this race. In our campaign’s last poll, the 4 miscellaneous candidates were splitting less than 10% of the vote. Last night they got about 25% of the vote. This is probably due to how negative the race got in the closing week, and folks decided to vote for somebody they’d heard of, but hadn’t heard anything bad about. A recount in this district is going to be gruesome. Over 500 precincts across 31 counties spanning two peninsulas and two time zones . . . Ugh.
It’s close in Michigan’s 2nd district as well; fewer than a thousand votes separate Bill Huizenga and Jay Riemersma.
State representative Justin Amash won the GOP primary in the 3rd district; he should be favored in this R+6 district where Vernon Ehlers is retiring.
Former congressman Tim Walberg won the contested GOP primary in Michigan’s 7th district. Time for a rematch with Mark Schauer in a nominally Republican district that scores R+2.
Rocky Raczkowski won a hard-fought GOP primary and will face Gary Peters in a nominally Democrat district that scores D+2.
I’m a little intrigued that Michael Switalski, a term-limited state senator who emphasized runaway spending, took 24 percent of the primary vote against Democrat Sander Levin in the 12th district. This incumbent, the 78-year-old older brother of Sen. Carl Levin, has been in office since 1983. Republican Don Volaric faces an uphill climb in this Democratic district (D+12), but it appears there’s some frustration out there that he can tap.
Seven-term incumbent Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, mother of convicted former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, lost her primary last night. But I’m sure that scandal-plagued African-American incumbents representing the inner city have nothing to worry about, right, Congressman Rangel?
MISSOURI
The big news in the Show Me Sstate was the referendum on Obamacare and the turnout in the respective Senate primaries.
But one big House race in the state is in the 4th district, where 78-year-old Ike Skelton is a Democrat who has represented a GOP-leaning district since 1977. The contrast will be sharpened in the general election, where he will face the much younger Vicki Hartzler.
Auctioneer Billy Long won a contested GOP primary and will take on Democrat Scott Eckersley in the district that Roy Blunt represented for seven terms.
