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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

IL-17: Democrat Incumbent Phil Hare 33, GOP Challenger Bobby Schilling 31



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Public Opinion Strategies began the month by surveying Illinois’s 17th district again. They found incumbent Democrat Phil Hare with some seriously weak numbers:

Congressman Hare’s upside down re-elect score is a serious problem for him.

Just 25% of voters say Hare deserves to be re-elected, while 46% say it is time to give a new person a chance to do a better job. While these numbers are grim, the news only gets worse for Hare among key subgroups such as Independents (20% re-elect/52% new person), soft Dems (30% re-elect/40% new person) and voters most interested in the election (30% re-elect/53% new person among voters who rate their interest as a 10).

Hare fails to break 35% on the Congressional ballot.

Hare receives just 33% of the vote on the ballot test and leads Republican Bobby Schilling by just two points (33% Hare/31% Schilling). Green party candidate Roger Davis receives 7% of the vote, and 30% of voters are currently undecided. It is very difficult for any incumbent to win an election where he starts out with just 33% of the vote, and there are no signs in the data that Phil Hare will be any different.

Looking at the undecided voters Hare would need to win over to make a comeback, the Congressman’s re-elect score is 11% re-elect/41% new person. The party breakdown of the undecided voters also offers little hope for Hare, as 65% are either GOPers (21%) or Independents (44%), so it is not simply a matter of hoping Democrats come home to Hare.The news is no better for Hare among the 38% of voters who have heard of both candidates, as Schilling leads by nineteen points (49% Schilling/30% Hare/5% Davis) with these most informed voters.


Tags: Bobby Schilling , Phil Hare


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