The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

IL-17: Democrat Incumbent Phil Hare 33, GOP Challenger Bobby Schilling 31


Public Opinion Strategies began the month by surveying Illinois’s 17th district again. They found incumbent Democrat Phil Hare with some seriously weak numbers:

Congressman Hare’s upside down re-elect score is a serious problem for him.

Just 25% of voters say Hare deserves to be re-elected, while 46% say it is time to give a new person a chance to do a better job. While these numbers are grim, the news only gets worse for Hare among key subgroups such as Independents (20% re-elect/52% new person), soft Dems (30% re-elect/40% new person) and voters most interested in the election (30% re-elect/53% new person among voters who rate their interest as a 10).

Hare fails to break 35% on the Congressional ballot.

Hare receives just 33% of the vote on the ballot test and leads Republican Bobby Schilling by just two points (33% Hare/31% Schilling). Green party candidate Roger Davis receives 7% of the vote, and 30% of voters are currently undecided. It is very difficult for any incumbent to win an election where he starts out with just 33% of the vote, and there are no signs in the data that Phil Hare will be any different.

Looking at the undecided voters Hare would need to win over to make a comeback, the Congressman’s re-elect score is 11% re-elect/41% new person. The party breakdown of the undecided voters also offers little hope for Hare, as 65% are either GOPers (21%) or Independents (44%), so it is not simply a matter of hoping Democrats come home to Hare.The news is no better for Hare among the 38% of voters who have heard of both candidates, as Schilling leads by nineteen points (49% Schilling/30% Hare/5% Davis) with these most informed voters.

Tags: Bobby Schilling , Phil Hare


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