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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

GOP Challenger Kinzinger 51, Democrat Incumbent Halvorson 40



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If you’re a House GOP challenger who isn’t beating a Democrat incumbent by double digits, you must feel like an underachiever these days. The latest in Illinois:

A new internal poll shows Republican congressional challenger Adam Kinzinger leading freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Halvorson by 11 percentage points, Kinzinger’s campaign said Monday.

The poll of 400 likely voters in the south suburban 11th Congressional District found Kinzinger leading Halvorson 51 percent to 40 percent.

While the poll said Kinzinger is now known by 60 percent of the respondents, the number who had a favorable impression of him — 27 percent — and those that have an unfavorable impression — 4 percent — only add up to 31 percent.

Of course, the Sun-Times gives a good reason for caution:

The polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies, found Halvorson’s last Republican opponent, Marty Ozinga, within 2 percentage points of her just before election day. She won that race 58 percent to 35 percent.

UPDATE: Never trust the Chicago Sun-Times. Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies writes in:

The Sun-Times has apologized and is correcting that item.  There was NEVER a poll that we did that showed the race just two points in 2008. 

Our final poll was done October 12-13 and showed Ozinga down double digits.  It was not released, and after that poll, he essentially stopped spending money. 


Tags: Adam Kinzinger , Debbie Halvorson


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