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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Democrats Seriously Sliding in Massachusetts?



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There are some interesting and, some might say, inspiring poll results out of Massachusetts, but I would argue local GOP candidates still need to “seal the deal.”

Between July 23, 2010 and July 26, 2010 Opinion Dynamics conducted a poll for MassInsight. 500 adults were polled mostly on economic issues and a subset of 452 registered voters were identified and asked a series of political questions.

The results of the poll further show that Tim Cahill is playing the part of spoiler in the race for Massachusetts Governor. In a three way race the poll shows that 25% show support for Charlie Baker, 30% show support for Deval Patrick and 16% show support for Tim Cahill with 29% undecided. In a two person race between Charlie Baker and Deval Patrick, Baker holds a 5 point lead 42% – 37% with 22% undecided.

Perhaps the most shocking aspect of this poll is that 54% of registered voters in Massachusetts are either somewhat or very likely to vote against their incumbent Democratic Congressman this November. Republicans have a once in a generation opportunity to restore balance to our congressional delegation.

Strangely, the right direction/wrong track split is at 46/40, which seems pretty good considering the mood of the country. Also note that the “will definitely vote against my incumbent Democratic Congressman” is at 30 percent, which is flat from April and one point below what it was in January. There’s no disputing that for Massachusetts Republicans, the opportunities are there. But the locals haven’t completely abandoned their traditional Democratic loyalties yet.


Tags: Charlie Baker , Deval Patrick , Tim Cahill


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