The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

The Handful of Races That Might Impact the Next Decade?


A reader writes in, asking a fascinating question: Which five races are most important for Republicans this year?

(Cue every GOP campaign consultant in America e-mailing me with the message, “IT’S MINE! IT’S MINE! IT’S MINE!”)

I offered an answer that didn’t quite fit his criteria: If the GOP wins the governor’s races in California, Texas, and Florida, and maximizes its influence in each state’s legislature, they will probably have the ability to add about 10 more GOP-friendly U.S. House districts among those three states. With the House of Representatives likely to be closely contested after Election Day — either a narrow Democratic majority or a narrow Republican majority — that next batch of winnable races could have a big impact on the next ten years.

Of course, California is considering altering its usual method of redistricting through a proposition this year, and Democrats have large majorities in the state senate and assembly. Texas’s state senate is currently heavily GOP and the state house has a narrower Republican majority; Florida Republicans have a pretty wide majorities in the state senate and state house.

Tags: Bill McCollum , Meg Whitman , Rick Perry , Rick Scott


Subscribe to National Review