The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Is There a Trend Toward Reid Emerging? Or Has It Emerged and Passed?


Publius, at a site I am previously unfamiliar with:

In arguing that Angle’s strategy is working, Geraghty is putting a lot of weight behind the shift in the Mason Dixon poll in Nevada from D+7 to D+1. 

There’s a new Mason-Dixon poll out this morning that puts Reid up 2. It’s the only one done since the first of the month; Reuters-Ipsos conducted a poll that ended August 1 that showed Reid up 4. To get a sense of momentum or movement in a race, I prefer to compare a poll to the previous one conducted by the same pollster; you figure that whatever the quirks of an individual pollster, that pollster is consistent in their quirks. The Reuters-Ipsos one was their first in the state, so we have nothing previous to compare it to and get any sense of movement.

Publius writes:

The trend towards Reid is emerging, however. Six of the past 7 polls have shown a lead for Reid. The 7 polls before that gave Angle the lead six of seven times.

Er, yes, but six of those seven polls showing Angle ahead were from before the primary, going back to March. How well did Nevadans — particularly independents — know Sharron Angle before the primary? How many folks saw her on the ballot as “not Reid”?

Publius also writes, “You have to admire Geraghty’s devotion to a cause.” Boy, he hasn’t been reading me for a very long time, huh?

Tags: Harry Reid , Sharron Angle


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