It might be easier for Cook Political Report to say, “All right, just take the previous list of House race ratings and move everything one notch to the right. Yup. Yup. Yeah, that one too. Keep going. Keep going. Yeah, even that one.”
Here are their shifts for today:
Republicans need 39 seats to win the House. Cook now projects the GOP will gain between 35 and 45 seats. Right now they rate 72 currently Democrat-held House seats as “Lean Democrat” or more vulnerable.
Hey cook, you are not finished moving these races or many others to the right even more. The wave is going to massive, bigger than '94. My prediction all along since Jan is a 60 seat pick up.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI have my prediction at net 80 in the House, net 10 in the Senate, and net 12 in gov races.
The voting public ha moved about 20 points towards the Reps from where it was in 2008, with Independents (who will decide the midterms) about 40-50 points away from the Dems than in 2008.
We saw the change in NJ (20% shift), VA (24%), and MA special (31%). BTW, each of these states saw the I's go over 2-to-1 against the Dems.
And I would posit that the Dems' numbers have not gotten better in the last 8-10 months.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse@sam - I think most people forget about the other trouble the D's have. They are going to lose at least 6 to 8 senate seat but probably more and if you looked at these seats two years ago, you would have thought the R's were in trouble and would lose more. This should have been an easy year for the D's in the senate, they don't have the very vulnerable seats up that they won in '06, those are not up until '12. They have some very very weak candidates up in '12 and the R's will certainly take back those seats that are traditionally R seats.
The severe damage the D's will face this Nov will be from the Senate all the way down to local mayors. This election will affect the D's for 10 years or more. The farm leagues (aka the state legislatures, local mayors, etc) are going to be decimated. That will eliminate a hundreds of future candidates.
This is an excellent piece at Real clear politics. All of the R wins and in such a massive landslide coincides with redistricting. So D's will be severely hurt because of losing so many state houses, Gov's, etc.
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Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMany Republicans are impressing me who are in later stages
Cornelious in OR
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseKoster WA
Hartlzer MO
Republican running again Holt in NJ, Kind in Wi, Peterson MN, Waltz MN, Kagen WI, Hall NY, Bishop NY are some of races to keep an eye on to see how deep movement is