The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Think of This Bad Poll for the GOP as a Palate-Cleanser


Almost everything is coming up roses for the GOP in recent polls, but not quite everything:

A smaller sample in [Idaho's] 1st Congressional District put incumbent Democrat Walt Minnick ahead of Republican Raul Labrador by 23 percentage points . . . In the 1st District Minnick led Labrador 52 percent to 29 percent. That’s 13 points higher than a poll conducted for the Labrador campaign by GOP pollster Bob Moore July 12 and 13. Moore showed Minnick with a 37 percent to 27 percent lead. But the IHA’s sample of 200 — assuming the pollster balanced the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts — would have a margin of error of roughly 7 percent. Moore’s margin of error for his sample of 300 likely voters was 6 percent.

At the beginning of the cycle, I would have put this race, in an R+18 district, as one of the can’t-miss opportunities for the GOP. Well, so far, they’re finding a way to miss.

Tags: Raul Labrador , Walt Minnick


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