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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

GOP’s Crawford Leads by 16 in Arkansas Open-Seat House Race



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However rough your Monday turns out to be, it could be worse: You could be in charge of morale at the Arkansas Democratic party.

A new Talk Business Poll conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College shows First District Congressional Republican nominee Rick Crawford with a 16-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Chad Causey. In a survey conducted on Tuesday night, August 17, 2010, Crawford leads Causey 48-32% among 630 likely Arkansas voters in the district. Green Party nominee Ken Adler received 4% of support from those surveyed, while undecided voters stood at 16%.

You can view the full results of the poll and the questions asked at this link.

“This is a truly dramatic result that I believe sets the stage for a very favorable election climate for Republicans in Arkansas.  For Democrats, it is a clear signal that this fall’s election may be the toughest landscape they’ve ever faced in the First,” said Talk Business editor Roby Brock.”

. . . independents are leaning strongly towards the Republican (54-21% with 20% undecided).

The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 3.9%, was completed using IVR survey technology on Tuesday, August 17, 2010 among 630 registered Arkansas voters in Congressional District 1 who indicated they were “likely” to vote in the November 2, 2010 general election. 74% of those surveyed have voted in a minimum of 2 of the last 4 general elections. Voters with a less frequent voting history were allowed in the sample to account for younger voters and first-time voters of all ages.


Tags: Chad Causey , Rick Crawford


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