Patrick Ruffini wants a new update on the overall outlook for the House.
I had a list of 99 back in May. A few races have been added since then (Bob Etheridge had not grabbed anyone by the neck back then), and the outlook has shifted a bit. You can see my May categorization here. I’ve scrapped the NFL-team comparison and just gone with a simpler explanation, while retaining that reassuring and memorable Department of Homeland Security
color-coded chart theme.
BLUE: GOP Should Win
Marion Berry’s open seat in Arkansas, Vic Snyder’s open seat in Arkansas, Dennis Moore’s open seat in Kansas, Charlie Melancon’s open seat in Louisiana, Paul Hodes’s open seat in New Hampshire, Eric Massa’s open seat in New York, John Tanner’s open seat in Tennessee, Bart Gordon’s open seat in Tennessee, Betsy Markey in Colorado, Frank Kratovil in Maryland, Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire, Earl Pomeroy in North Dakota, Paul Kanjorski in Pennsylvania. (13)
GREEN: GOP Has Good Chance of Winning
Brad Ellsworth’s open seat in Indiana, Joe Sestak’s open seat in Pennsylvania, Dave Obey’s open seat in Wisconsin, Bobby Bright in Alabama, Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona, Allen Boyd in Florida, Alan Grayson in Florida, Suzanne Kosmas in Florida, Debbie Halvorson in Illinois, Phil Hare in Illinois, Baron Hill in Indiana, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Travis Childers in Mississippi, Dina Titus in Nevada, Harry Teague in New Mexico, Bob Etheridge in North Carolina, John Boccieri in Ohio, Zach Space in Ohio, Betty Sutton in Ohio, Mary Jo Kilroy in Ohio, Steve Driehaus in Ohio, Kathy Dahlkemper in Pennsylvania, John Spratt in South Carolina, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin in South Dakota, Glenn Nye in Virginia, Rick Boucher in Virginia, Tom Perriello in Virginia, Allan Mollohan in West Virginia. (28)
YELLOW: GOP Chances About 50-50
Bart Stupak’s open seat in Michigan, Brian Baird’s open seat in Washington, Gabby Giffords in Arizona, Harry Mitchell in Arizona, John Salazar in Colorado, Ron Klein in Florida, John Barrow in Georgia, Jim Marshall in Georgia, Walt Minnick in Idaho, Melissa Bean in Illinois, Bill Foster in Illinois, Leonard Boswell in Iowa, Ben Chandler in Kentucky, Mark Schauer in Michigan, Gary Peters in Michigan, Ike Skelton in Missouri, Shelley Berkeley in Nevada, John Adler in New Jersey, Martin Heinrich in New Mexico, Michael Arcuri in New York, Tim Bishop in New York, John Hall in New York, Bill Owens in New York, Mike McMahon in New York, Larry Kissell in North Carolina, Mike McIntyre in North Carolina, Heath Shuler in North Carolina, Charlie Wilson in Ohio, Jason Altmire in Pennsylvania, Chris Carney in Pennsylvania, Mark Critz in Pennsylvania, Patrick Murphy in Pennsylvania, Tim Holden in Pennsylvania, Lincoln Davis in Tennessee, Ciro Rodriguez in Texas, Steve Kagen in Wisconsin. (36)
ORANGE: GOP Should Win With Luck or Wave
Bill Delahunt’s open seat in Massachusetts, Mike Ross in Arkansas, Jim Costa in California, Loretta Sanchez in California, Jerry McNerney in California, Bob Filner in California, Ed Perlmutter in Colorado, Jim Himes in Connecticut, Chris Murphy in Connecticut, Sanford Bishop in Georgia, Bruce Braley in Iowa, Dave Loebsack in Iowa, Gene Taylor in Mississippi, Russ Carnahan in Missouri, Rush Holt in New Jersey, Dan Maffei in New York, Kurt Schrader in Oregon, Chet Edwards in Texas, Jim Matheson in Utah, Gerry Connolly in Virginia, Nick Rahall in West Virginia, Ron Kind in Wisconsin. (22)
RED: GOP Will Need a Wave and Some Luck
Patrick Kennedy’s open seat in Rhode Island, Stephen Lynch in Massachusetts, Betty McCollum in Minnesota, Frank Pallone in New Jersey, Dan Boren in Oklahoma, David Wu in Oregon. (6)
That adds up to 105 seats the Democrats have to defend.
Not too long ago, I looked at the GOP’s vulnerable House seats:
I would have put Joseph Cao, that Republican representing that New Orleans district, on the extremely endangered list, but “Cao led state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) by a 51%-26% margin, according to a survey conducted May 27-June 2 by LA pollster Verne Kennedy.” That poll doesn’t guarantee Cao survives, but it suggests the race is not the slam dunk the DCCC thinks it is. Obviously, Hawaii’s Charles Djou won’t have an easy campaign, but observers aren’t putting his seat in even the top ten seats most likely to switch. In Illinois’s 10th district, Republican Bob Dold and Democrat Dan Seals are even in fundraising and a poll back in March put Seals up by only 3. It’s a similar story in the open-seat race in Florida, which is an R+5 district, by the way.
Holding Delaware’s lone House seat will indeed be tough for the GOP . . .
Ordinarily, you figure the GOP would lose most or at least some of their really vulnerable seats . . . but there’s an awfully strong undertow for Democrats right now. Maybe it mitigates by November, but right now there aren’t too many signs of that.
It is great to see the Debicella V. Himes race upgraded.
Jim Himes: For History’s Biggest Tax Hike Within Two Months of Election Day
Incumbent Democrat Congressman Jim Himes is for a tax hike that he claims will hit only “the rich”. Himes is part of the Democrat majority that will hike the top tax rate on wages by over 13% to 39.6%. He will hike the capital gains tax by a third, to 20%. Under Pelosi and Himes, the tax on dividends will more than double, to 39.6% from 15%. Meanwhile, Himes will also slash in half tax credits for children and kill relief from the marriage penalty.
Hardest Hit: Fairfield County
The hardest hit will be the 4.3 million households whose marginal tax rate will approach 40%. Himes wants to hit 12.5 million American tax payers with history’s largest tax hike in the middle of a job-killing recession. An average of 29,000 tax paying individuals and small businesses per congressional district will be hit hard by the Himes tax hikes. Who will be hit the hardest? It turns out that the district that will fare the worst will be the fourth district of Connecticut. Over 146,000 Fairfield County taxpayers, comprising over a fifth of the district’s population, are members of families that will be forced pay an additional $1.7 billion in taxes next year. That’s more than $39,000 per household.
Jim Himes’ Class Warfare: We All Will Lose
For some voters, Himes’ efforts to stick it to our most successful neighbors and employers may hold some appeal. However, Himes’ tax hikes will have some unintended consequences that the incumbent congressman may not have adequately considered. For example, the 146,000 taxpayers in Fairfield County whose taxes will rise the most are responsible for over 30% of consumer demand in the county. They are responsible for employing over 50% of small business employees. So it is important to remember that when Himes goes after 20% of taxpayers, he also is going after your customers and your employers.
Fight Back: November 2nd
Jim Himes is fighting hard in Washington, DC to redistribute your private property to his endless government programs. On November 2nd, it will be time for Fairfield County to fight back by retiring Himes.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs things are today we take the House going away. Amazing and I never thought that we would be doing this well. I didn't even think we could take the House back until Obama passed Healthcare the way he did. Now we have a chance with 105 and winning half gives us the House. Amazing. If the Republicans actually govern and make use of this election we could really see a major change in the way that politics are run in this country. Amazing. However we are talking about Republicans here so I am not holding my breath for the best case scenario but Obama's arrogant tone deaf over reach could almost destroy his party. Fitting that...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI don’t understand why Tim Walz doesn’t seem to be on people’s radar. He is a Democrat representing Minnesota CD-1, the rural district running along our southern border, and he is being challenged by Randy Demmer. I’m not sure if anyone has polled this district, but I have a hard time believing a rural district Republicans held from ’94 until ’06 can’t be competitive, especially given that Tim Walz is by no means a centrist Democrat. He wasn’t even considered a swing vote on the healthcare bill. He’s a Pelosi Democrat all the way. However, relatively few Republicans seem interested in this district. This district appears to me to be low-hanging fruit and yet Republicans want to pull out the ladders to reach the higher branches. For instance, I don’t know why Betty McCollum’s district (which consists mostly of St. Paul) would be seen as a more viable pick-up. To be sure, Betty McCollum is a truly awful congresswoman and Teresa Collett (her challenger) is a pretty dynamic candidate, but it’s sort of hard for me to imagine St. Paul going Republican while southern Minnesota sends a very liberal congressman back to Washington. I’ve never heard a good explanation of why Republicans seem content to concede this district.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'm out here in Washington state. There is no way that the race for Bard's old seat is a only 50-50 for a Republican pickup. Jaime Herrera will win going away. Bard was way to the left of his district, more of an outlier than a reflection of his small town blue collar district(yes I know you have to overcome the Vancouver dem vote). Larson(D) in the 2nd district is in trouble as well. The 2nd District is also largely blue collar, rural and socially conservative, Larson has too much baggage of voting the Pelosi Dem party line to beat back a strong challenge from Koster this time. Also I'd rate Adam Smith(D) from the 9th District as vulnerable(50-50) and depending on the size of the Republican wave Jay Inslee(D) from the 1st District could be swept out as well. Larson's district was held by a Republican prior to his winning it. Adam Smith has always had to run better than his districts's partisan rating to keep it. Just based on the anecdotal evidence of the amount of grumbling I'm hearing in the small town bars and corner cafes(dissatisfaction that I didn't hear 2 and 4 years ago from these same small town spots) this could be the year that both Larson and Smith's luck runs out.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI was about to post the same as paradegpsy, though I'd call WA02 an orange race and WA09 a red one, for reasons that I can't seem to add to this comment.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLet me try it district-by-district. In the WA02 primary, Koster trails Larsen by about 150 votes, and late absentees may push him over the top. He beat Larsen solidly in Snohomish County, largest in the district, and the home county of both. That tells me Koster just needs to up his name recognition in the rest of the district to give him what might even be a comfortable win. He'll need $$ to do that, though.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMeanwhile, in WA09, Smith only got 51.4% in the primary. Challenger Richard Muri is short on cash & name recognition, but he's a legit candidate (sitting county councilman). If indies break Republican this year (see the most recent WA-SEN poll), I think a wave brings him in.
(I apologize for breaking this up into 3 separate comments. Mr. Muri is known by a shortened version of the name Richard, which is apparently blocked by the comments filter. Awesome.)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHere in California, I note Jim's got 4 out of the 22 CDs switching as part of a wave election. I'll note that in three of these districts, CA-11, CA 20, and CA 47, the total Republican primary vote exceeded that of the Dem(s).
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Historically, I see the GOP has almost always increased its vote from the primary to the general by a bigger % margin than the Dems tho this varies by district. BTW, Filner is the Dem candidate for CA-51 where eyepatch sporting veteran Nich Popaditch is our hope. I'd say the three above districts should be rated at least toss-ups, with CA 11 the most likely to switch. I'd put CA-51 and a few others like CA-10, CA-18, CA-27, CA-29, and CA-39, in the category of going R with a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane come November.
Incidentally, with a near total dearth of info on candidates and their prospects in our beutiful state, I've starte "California Tea Party Politcs" at this address-
External Link
I've gotta agree with mcgruff - I specifically looked at the comments here to make the same comment. Betty McCollum would pretty much have to say she loves Osama Bin Laden or be found to have committed a heinous felony to lose in Saint Paul. I exaggerate, but not by much. But also, as mcgruff points out, there's no reason Tim Walz should be considered totally safe down in CD1. This district changed quite a bit with the 2002 redistricting, but Mark Kennedy(R) came out of nowhere to beat longtime incumbent Dave Minge(D) in 2000, in an upset that no one saw coming. Similarly, not many people thought Gil Gutknecht(R) was going to get upset by Tim Walz(D) in 2006 until polls close to the election showed Gutknecht in trouble. So this is a district/area that has shown a willingness to dump their Congressman, and as mcgruff points out, Walz has voted the Pelosi line, a bad fit for this swing district.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI doubt if anyone will believe this (at least not before Nov. 2nd), but I would put Sheila Jackson Lee's seat in the possible (albeit "Red") category for these and other reasons:
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse1. Jackson-Lee is unpopular in Houston.
2. Popular talk show host Michael Berry is on her case.
3. Jackson-Lee spent huge amounts of money in her primary (!) and her unknown opponent still got about a third of the vote.
4. The demographics of the district are changing, to the point where whoever wins the Hispanic vote decisively will probably win the district. Blacks only somewhat number whites in the district, and both groups are (alas) highly polarized, which is what comes of Jackson-Lee continually playing identity politics.
5. Her opponent, John Faulk, has at least a little money, and lots of volunteers, and of course there is a 'wave.'