I suspect that Christine O’Donnell supporters know the risk of losing the seat if she is nominated, and have determined that she is worth the risk. The risk of losing the seat, however, is substantial:
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters [in Delaware] shows [Republican Senate candidate Mike] Castle earning 48% of the vote, while [Democrat Chris] Coons gets 37% support. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) remain undecided.
The race is little changed from early last month, when Castle held a 49% to 37% edge over Coons, a county executive who has never sought statewide office. July was the first time in Rasmussen Reports surveying of the race this year that support for Castle dipped below the 50% mark.
Prior to July, Castle earned between 53% and 56% support, while Coons’ support fell in a 27% to 32% range.
Coons leads conservative activist Christine O’Donnell, who is challenging Castle for the GOP Senate nomination in a primary next Tuesday, by a 47% to 36% margin. Given that matchup, eight percent (8%) prefer another candidate, while nine percent (9%) are undecided.
Last month, Coons held a similar 46% to 36% lead over O’Donnell after the candidates were virtually tied in July.
Castle captures 71% of the GOP vote, while O’Donnell earns 63% support among voters in her own party. While Coons is backed by 70% of Democrats against O’Donnell, he earns the vote from just 55% of Democratic voters when matched against Castle. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer Castle over Coons but favor the Democrat if O’Donnell is his opponent.
Oh, what am I saying? O’Donnell’s campaign already warned us not to trust Rasmussen’s numbers:
O’Donnell’s campaign manager Matt Moran thinks that this poll isn’t accurate, calling it “more of a push poll.” “Scott Rasmussen has to pay his bills,” says Moran. “We understand that the RNC and NRSC have long tentacles.”
And again, to the editors of the Washington Examiner:
She produced an old poll in which she led the Democrat in the general election, even though we pointed out a more recent one in which she trails by double digits.
Nice try, but they’re on to you, Scott!