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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Toss NY-19 Into the Already-High Potential GOP Win Pile



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On Election Day 2008, Barack Obama carried New York’s 19th Congressional District, 51 percent to 48 percent. The incumbent Democrat, John Hall, won by a healthy 59 percent to 41 percent margin.

Today, Daily Kos releases a PPP poll of the district showing incumbent Hall trailing GOP challenger Nan Hayworth, 42 percent to 44 percent; Hall has a very modest lead over another GOP challenger, Neil DiCarlo, 42 percent to 39 percent.

And Obama is at 39 percent approval, 56 percent disapproval within the district.

 

Pollster Tom Jensen elaborates:

[I]ntensity isn’t really the issue. We’re finding an electorate in NY-19 that supported Barack Obama by a point, not much of a drop from his 3 point win there. … The problem in NY-19 is that Obama voters have soured on him to a much greater extent than they have nationally. Only 75% of his supporters still approve of the job he’s doing and his loss of support is rubbing off on Hall. With the Obama voters who now disapprove of or are ambivalent toward him Nan Hayworth has a 56-28 lead. Nationally our last poll still found 86% of Obama voters approving of him so this is an unusually disenchanted district. 

This race was on my list of 99, when I wrote, “John Hall, New York: An R+3 district, this second-term Democrat could face an extremely well-funded challenger in Nan Hayworth, an ophthalmologist running hard against the health care bill.”


Tags: John Hall , Nan Hayworth , Neil DiCarlo


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