Campaigns hate it when I suggest they have their races won, so let’s include all the traditional caveats. In a New York minute, everything can change; every candidate is one gaffe away from self-destruction, October surprises may abound, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
At this point, the story of the election is the number of statewide races that were supposed to be competitive that aren’t. This morning’s poll in Ohio suggests that Ohio’s Senate race isn’t going to be all that competitive, and neither is the governor’s race. In Pennsylvania, Patrick Toomey leads by a bunch and Tom Corbett leads by a bunch more. Democrats will not be able to translate the Mark Sanford scandal into any serious traction in South Carolina’s governor’s race, and in that state’s Senate race . . . well, you know.
Michigan will not have a competitive governor’s race. There was a lot of talk that Democrat Bill White was capable of making the Texas governor’s race competitive, but so far he trails by a significant margin, except for the occasional outlying poll. Barring some dramatic change, Democrat Rory Reid will not make a serious run at Nevada’s governorship. In Tennessee, Republicans will win the governor’s mansion. In one of the great under-the-radar races of this cycle, Republican Paul LePage is a strong favorite to be the next governor of Maine. You can almost put Wisconsin in this pile, too.
The Missouri Senate race, once considered one of the perfect bellwethers, is looking increasingly like a Roy Blunt rout. The Florida Senate race looks much less competitive, now that Marco Rubio is up on the airwaves and kicking it into a higher gear. The Arkansas Senate race is probably going to be an embarrassment for Democrat Blanche Lincoln. We’ve known for a while now that the Senate races in North Dakota and Indiana would be solid GOP wins, and the challengers to GOP incumbents in Louisiana and North Carolina are not making any serious progress.
These are all statewide races that the Democrats could reasonably have hoped would be competitive at the beginning of the year. For their party, all of this paints a picture darker than Rembrandt’s Night Watch; if they’re losing the statewide races by a bunch, that helps GOP challengers in the House races lower on the ticket.
So Democrats can rejoice that they have a better chance in Delaware now, or that the Colorado gubernatorial race has broken their way, or that Mark Kirk isn’t roaring ahead of Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois. But they’re fooling themselves if they think it means that much in the big picture.
Every party leaves races on the table, even in their best years. In 1994, Democratic senator Chuck Robb hung on against Ollie North, and Sen. Diane Feinstein beat Michael Huffington by only 2 percentage points. In Maryland, Democrat Parris Glendening won the governor’s race by the skin of his teeth after viciously nasty attacks against Ellen Sauerbrey.
Good news out of Wisconsin this morning according to Rasmussen...
Johnson 51%
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFeingold 44%
The defeat of some slimy pol's will add to the sweetness. Ellsworth in IN going down is very very nice. I'd love to see Spratt get taken out, obviously boxer, Feingold and patty murray. Seeing all of them and many others humbled with crushing defeats is going to be soooooo nice.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think things looks great but its still no long time. A lot of Republican congressional candidates are being outspent by a lot and money can talk. I wish we had a working RNC at this point and time
Its shame Maes in CO is destroying any chance for us.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI am getting bit worried about Rossi in WA the polls are looking grim for him lately
Things look good nationally, although it's not November yet.
Sadly for this NY resident, one of the races being left on the table is the Senate race against Gillenbrand. It could have been a winnable race (although never a cakewalk), but the NY Republican party has to be the most feckless organization I've ever seen.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI agree with Bertram Wooster, except possibly for Illinois. The competition for the "Useless and Counterproductive" Blue Ribbon Prize is quite fierce, but I believe that the Illinois GOP edges out the New York GOP as a group of people you don't want 'on your side.' Illinois actually had a good GOP senator not long ago - I believe his name was Fitzgerald - and the GOP state party couldn't stand it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDon't forget the IL Gov race- Brady is leading Quinn by double-digits in most polling. That's a big deal for a state with NO statewide elected officials and a Dem controlled state House and Senate. The GOP should also win the Treasurer and Comptroller races and could win the state House.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWashington's Senate race is a concern, since Rossi is now trailing significanntly. I suggest it is time that someone tell Clint Didier to grow-up and endorse his opponent. If we think it is bad for Murkowski, McCollum, and Castle not to endorse the people they lost to in the primary, why should Didier get a pass?
On the other hand, Dan Maes may go down as the classic example of the perils you can get in candidates in electoral years like this one, where saying exciting things to excited people can get marginal candidates into general elections before they are ready (If ever.). The Colorado governor's race is not going to be close, as long as Maes is still in.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs Richard Reed points out, the Illinois Senate race is bucking the rout trend, but it has little to do with the electorate. It has only to do with the state and national GOP parties -- both of which are getting their tails whipped so far in this cycle.
We ran liberal Mark Kirk in the Senate and the state IL - GOP endorsed him before he was done announcing his candidacy. The party has pushed the primary up so early in the cycle that it guarantees incumbents a disorganized and unfunded challenger. And Kirk came into the race as the equivalent of an incumbent.
But he continues even now to run against conservatives, not against his ideological twins, the Democrats. A conservative would be killing the clownish Giannoulias at this point, but Kirk is barely ahead and most conservatives are still mulling over voting at all.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe link regarding the Michigan governor's race only links back to the Campaign Spot. The Detroit Free Press poll has Snyder up 53-29.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn '06, the Dems managed to paint the GOP candidate, Rich DeVos, as a businessman who sent jobs to China (falsely, I might add). They're trying it again on Snyder, who was the Gateway CEO for a while. This is the only chance they have.
As a conservative Illinois resident, I can back up what Jerome says. Some of my conservative friends are ready to hold their noses and vote for Kirk, but others aren't, and neither am I. I'm seriously considering voting Libertarian, but I don't really like Michael Labno either.
Obviously this is all Jim's fault. ;-)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe news from Tennessee is so good that we conservatives have to work hard fighting overconfidence. The present 5 - 4 Democrat majority in the Congressional delegation will certainly become 5 - 4 Republican, likely 6 - 3 and even possibly 7 - 2.
The Republicans are set to increase their majorities in the state legislature, thus controling redistricting for the first time since the War Between the States. That will put the Republicans in control of politics in Tennessee for the next decade.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn the IN 2nd, Joe Donnelly has only a 2pt lead over Jackie Walosrki. Walorksi has run a rather quiet, somewhat conservative campaign thus far. Hopefully she will remind Hoosier voters that Donnelly was one of Stupak 5 that gave us ObamaCare.
What I find amusing is that both Donnelly and Brad Elsworth (who is running for the Senate against Dan Coats) are running ads as Outsiders, despite the fact that they are both elected officials. I think there is real fear out there in Democrat land.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's going to be nice to see some longtime politicians (and some big names) going home for a change instead of yet another term. I hope things continue to look good, but its so easy to let up and blow it. Obama may be the worst president ever but at least he has woken the sleeping giant. Maybe we can have a chance to finally put liberal politics in the history books and move on as a country.
Its too bad that the tea party wasn't able to reform Illinois and New York Republican Party which continue to be pathetic. In Illinois Giannoulias should be losing by double digits but yet he is bearly trailing. A pathetic Republican party only strengthens the Democrats, who corruption has been unchecked for far too long in both states.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI've talked personally with both Kirk and Giannoulias. Believe me, Kirk is by far the better candidate. Kirk at least speaks from his convictions and beliefs, something which I cannot say about Giannoulias (who comes off as having few views of his own and would most likely end up being little more than a rubber stamp for whatever the Obama administration wanted). In most things that matter to conservatives -- fiscal issues, the military, support of Israel -- he is far more in tune with us than Giannoulias ever will be.
Because of the unique situation with Illinois this year, if Kirk wins he will be able to take office within weeks of the election, instead of waiting until January. The GOP, therefore, has the chance to put one more Republican vote in the senate during the lame duck session, when Reid, Pelosi, and Obama are sure to try and ramrod through more of their garbage. It would be foolish to waste the opportunity of putting in place one more potentially crucial vote.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJim had a post a while back with an email from a Delaware voter about the insular nature of that state's GOP establishment. The Illinois GOP is probably much the same -- they operate in a Dem-dominated Chicago-style political environment, and so "get along to go along" with the Dems on a lot of stuff (fearing otherwise they'd be completely shut out.)
Kirk really must be a Scozzaflazza/Castle type if he can't pound Giannoulous (sic) into the sand!! But the idea of Obama's senate seat flipping is almost as juicy as knocking off Harry Reid. ;-)
Fun fact -- when I lived in Chicago I was a customer of Broadway Bank! I always thought it seemed pretty quiet in their main branch -- like they didn't really need retail customers. Turns out they were mobbed up, what a shock! Gianoulous absolutely does not deserve to get elected to the senate, it would be a travesty. He only gets to run for the Senate for the same reason Obama got the nod -- he's connected to the Chicago machine, but too green to have his own power base or make any waves. Therefore easy to manipulate and beholden to the usual interest groups (unions etc.), a rubber-stamper for sure.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Some of my conservative friends are ready to hold their noses and vote for Kirk, but others aren't, and neither am I. I'm seriously considering voting Libertarian, but I don't really like Michael Labno either."
That is a RINO instinct, if you call yourself a Republican. Look, a vote for a third party is a vote for the Democrat. If I have to support people like Angle and Miller to avoid being called a RINO, you have to support Kirk. It's only fair.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWould just add: it is soooo worth electing Kirk instead of Giannoulous. If the choice is between a RINO and a Daley Mobster? Are you kidding me? This is the Senate, not the Chicago City Council!!
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"That is a RINO instinct, if you call yourself a Republican."
A reluctance to vote for a RINO is a RINO instinct? Really? I guess it's a good thing that I don't call myself a Republican, then. I call myself a conservative.
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