Two shockers from Quinnipiac this morning, each one making the other a wee bit suspect.
In Pennsylvania:
Republican Pat Toomey has hit the magic 50 percent mark as he leads Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak 50 – 43 percent in the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today.
Pennsylvania likely voters disapprove 56 – 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, the independent Quinnipiac University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. This first general election survey of Pennsylvania likely voters in this election cycle cannot be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.
I’m sure Team Toomey will take it, but a seven-point margin is actually one of the better ones Sestak has seen lately.
But here’s the holy-smokes-can-this-be-real one:
Republican Carl Paladino, aided by a 4 -1 margin among Tea Partiers, trails New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic candidate for Governor, 49 – 43 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Only 18 percent of New York State likely voters consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, but they back Paladino 77 – 18 percent.
Cuomo leads 87 – 8 percent among Democrats while Paladino leads 83 – 13 percent among Republicans and 49 – 43 percent among independent voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. This first likely voter general election survey in New York in this election cycle can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.
I’ve been lamenting for weeks that a bunch of strong GOP House candidates in New York were going to be hurt by the lack of top-of-the-ticket help or even a competitive statewide race among the big three: the governor’s race and the two Senate races. Well, Paladino, who’s pledging to clean up Albany with a baseball bat, looks like he’s in a competitive race.
I believe the NY poll. Remember what happened in the NY local elections last November - the local Democrats were supposed to coast but ended up losing. In the Westchester County executive's race (Ds outnumber Rs 2 to 1 in Westchester), Republican Rob Astorino defeated the four-term incumbent Democrat, Andy Spano, by 17 points, and in Nassau County, Tom Suozzi was ahead by double digits in the polls but lost a squeaker to Ed Mangano. And that was before ObamaCare. New Yorkers are po'd. I just wish we had stronger candidates against Gillibrand and Schumer.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf I may add, Joe DioGuardi is only down 10 points to Kirsten Gillibrand according to the latest Rasmussen report. Pre-election polls showeded him down 20. He has a real shot to beat the incumbent in name only and deserves some coverage.....
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseQ'Pac ALWAYS underestimates Republicans. ALWAYS. They are one of the worst pollsters out there in terms of accuracy, but those errors have always benefited the Dems. If they say Paladino is only down by 6, the race is probably actually tied and Toomey is up by 10-12.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe internal splits look about right in that NY poll - Republicans going for Paladino, Democrats for Cuomo and independents leaning towards the GOP. Without a link I can't see what the party ID breakdown is, but that may be where any "issue" with the results lies. Democrats far outnumber Republicans in the state (by nearly 2 to 1 as of the April 2010 statistics). Exit polls in 2008 put the breakdown at 50D, 26R, 25I. Exit polls in 2006 put the breakdown in NY at 49D, 24R, 27I. 2004 exit polls put the split at 46D, 28R, 25I. I can't even find a reasonable break down that yields 49-43 top line results given the relative partisan support for the candidates - would seem to require something closer to 40D, 35R, 25I, which seems extreme even in this environment.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis just shows what an epic failure it was that the NY GOP could not recruit better candidates. If Carl Paladino Andrew Cuomo by 6% than you can be sure Rudy Giuliani would be leading by 16%.
Paladino seems to be tapping into the anger New Yorkers are feeling towards Albany. He's running against both the Democrats and Republicans in the state.
Paladino has called Pataki a degerate idiot, that Shelly Silver belongs is Attica, that the only thing that motivates Al D'Amato is the color green. That the NYS Legislature doesn't have a brain in their heads.
The irony here is that Andrew Cuomo is also running a campaign against the Democrats who control Albany.
The question for NY voters will be to they think a career insider like Cuomo can gradually change Albany or do they want Paladino and his baseball bat to knock it down.
Apparently 43% of New Yorkers are really angry. The crooks who run the state should be really scared.
Heck if Chris Christie can tame Trenton maybe you need a Carl Paladino to tame Albany.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePaladino favors using eminent domain to shut down Park 51. I wonder how the Tea Party supporters feel about that.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePaladino will not tame Albany - unlike the office of governor in NJ, the governor of NY does not have a lot of power to do things unilaterally (why do you think every budget season in NY is a nightmare). Without some legislative buy in there will be few meaningful reforms - and Paladino will be hard-pressed to get even Republicans up there to buy in, let alone the majority Democrats. He's still the better option, but folks should be realistic about what he will be able to accomplish.
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